4 ms·
https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html Current modeling estimates put the likely number of infections between 1 and 6.2
by Fomite 7y ago
https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html https://www.mobs-lab.org/2019ncov.html
Current modeling estimates put the likely number of infections between 1 and 6.2 thousand, primarily concentrated in China.
- prepend 7y agoThis estimate [0] puts it at 4,000 as of Jan 18. It’s weird to not have government numbers that are actionable and we have to use models that range from 1-9.7k. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/ https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-ana...
- Fomite 7y agoIt's actually not all that weird. The link I posted above is from a group that was funded by the NIH in a program called MIDAS (Modeling Infectious Disease Agent Study). The express goal was to produce modeling platforms usable by the government. Imperial's MRC group has a very similar mandate, IIRC. Where these numbers are coming from, and the range of uncertainty around them, is very much characteristic of an emerging infectious disease (bad early data, stochasticity, etc.).