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First, this isn't a flu. This is a coronavirus, related (but not identical) to both the common cold and (more closely due to subtypes) SARS. That said, while I
by ebiester 7y ago
First, this isn't a flu. This is a coronavirus, related (but not identical) to both the common cold and (more closely due to subtypes) SARS. That said, while I am not an epidemiologist, this doesn't seem nearly as fatal - about a 2% compared to a 9.5% of SARS and 10-15% of the Spanish Flu. Remember that known cases will usually have more serious reactions than less serious cases - milder cases won't go to doctors.
I am hoping that this ends up being an overreaction. That said, SARS most definitely wasn't, and I wonder if we could make life a lot better if we generally treated the common cold and flu the same way, preventing the outbreaks in the first place.
- Fomite 7y agoI am an epidemiologist. Right now, the case fatality definition is bonkers. 2.3% is the low estimate, and it goes way up. The high estimate is 91%. That's just a uselessly broad figure because it's still very early days. If I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably around the level of SARS/MERS.
- ebiester 7y agoI made the mistake of assuming the official numbers being reported were accurate. If the Weibo rumors are true, this is truly scary and uncontrolled within China.