3 ms·
Yes, seasonal flu in the US alone kills around 30,000 each year, and may have killed as many as 60,000 during the 17-18 flu season alone [1]. MERS and SARS have
by aodin 7y ago
Yes, seasonal flu in the US alone kills around 30,000 each year, and may have killed as many as 60,000 during the 17-18 flu season alone [1]. MERS and SARS have each killed less than 1,000 worldwide.
A few things that may interest you:
* The rate of transmission for a disease is estimated by its R0 or basic reproduction number. R0 estimates the number of new cases from the unaffected population that one infection will cause. A disease with R0 <1 will die out by itself. SARS has an estimated R0 of 3-5, while seasonal flus are between 1 and 2 [2]. So by this measure alone SARS is more "infectious" than the flu. Note that R0 is not a rate and is estimated from mathematical models [3].
* Seasonal flu predominantly kills the young, the elderly, and the immunocompromised. Interestingly, some strains, such as the Spanish Flu, have very different mortality curves that kill healthy middle aged adults far more than average [4]. I would expect a dramatically different public health response compared to normal seasonal flu if a future pandemic had a similar mortality curve.
* In the US, the "tip of the spear" for disease response would be the CDC's Division of Global Migration and Quarantine [5].
[1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19545404
[3] https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf https://web.stanford.edu/~jhj1/teachingdocs/Jones-on-R0.pdf
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:W_curve.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#/media/File:W_curv...
[5] https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dgmq/quarantine-fact-sheet.html https://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dgmq/quarantine-fact-sheet.html
- fat_turdsicle 7y agoChange that first sentence to may kill around 30,000. The CDC knowingly cooks the books and lumps in Pneumonia and other illnesses with their numbers on possible deaths from the Flu. From their web site: Why doesn’t CDC base its seasonal flu mortality estimates only on death certificates that specifically list influenza? Seasonal influenza may lead to death from other causes, such as pneumonia, congestive heart failure, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.