5 ms·

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are c

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
codegeek 7y ago
Don't forget Ebola scare as well.
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
  Ah, but they've developed a vaccine for Ebola. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fda-approved-vaccine-prevention-ebola-virus-disease-marking-critical-milestone-public-health https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fd...
sveme 7y ago
Maybe it‘s like acid rain - the scare is keeping it from becoming what it could potentially be. And at some point there will definitely be a major pandemic.
- option 7y ago
  define “major pandemic”. By % of humans affected the trend was very clearly towards almost 0. By absolute number of people affected it also has been trending down since around 1900 despite the population growth
mAritz 7y ago
Bird flu (H5N8) is actually back in central Europe right now, coming in through eastern Europe from Central Asia.
- eecc 7y ago
  We’re all sickened for about two weeks already... this year’s flu is definitely a thing, although seems to be contained in the NL (personal, anecdotal evidence)
  - mAritz 7y ago
    Bird Flu spreads very rarely to Humans, you're probably talking about other flu viruses or just the common cold.
koheripbal 7y ago
Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation. The same is not true in virology. There is no "pent up" mechanism that needs to periodically release an outbreak. It is entirely random and in these types of outbreaks simply becomes more likely when many animal species exist in close proximity, allowing virus cross-over. It's no coincidence this happened in a live animal market. One exception to cyclic nature is immunity. In cases where the same disease outbreaks because the human population is no longer immune - ie the Black Death which returned every couple generations in the old world. ...but that phenomenon only applies to SAME disease returning - not different ones.
- mrtksn 7y ago
  Maybe the mechanism is in the cynicism. After some time people forget why they are freaking out over something that never happened as far as they remember. A bit like the Y2K bug that was supposed to end the world but nothing happened but nothing happened because we took measures successfully. There are many people out there using this as an example of alarmist to draw parallels with the climate change concerns. Maybe we as a species need to have people around who remember things and when they are gone we simply re-learn the lessons. Writing seems to be effective on passing the knowledge on how to do or avoid things but not very effective about the reasons.
- autokad 7y ago
  black plague in England was on a 20 year cycle I hear.
- btilly 7y ago
  Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation. Actually recessions seem to be driven by random events. Our brains impose a cyclic explanation on what is actually a stochastic process. See https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/economic-insights/2019/q1/eiq119-predicting-recessions.pdf https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/pu... for more.
- glofish 7y ago
munificent 7y ago
The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected world with millions of people flying every single day.
- sib 7y ago
  Great book about this (and, more broadly, the rise of medicine as a scientific endeavor): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491/ https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491/
  - cguess 7y ago
    Seconded: I just finished this last week, really great historical piece, doesn't leave much out.
- notadoc 7y ago
  > We have much better medicine now, thankfully. Do we? Against a deadly and virulent flu virus causing viral pneumonia? Not really without development of a highly effective vaccine. You have better life support, but that's about it. Something like ECMO is extremely invasive and limited to maybe a few per ICU.
  - refurb 7y ago
    We have anti-virals now, when back then we didn't. Not sure if they'd actually work on these strains, but it's something.
    - Haga 7y ago
      We also have extreme cases like the rabies survivor, using a introduced coma as measurement.
  - 7y ago
ebiester 7y ago
First, this isn't a flu. This is a coronavirus, related (but not identical) to both the common cold and (more closely due to subtypes) SARS. That said, while I am not an epidemiologist, this doesn't seem nearly as fatal - about a 2% compared to a 9.5% of SARS and 10-15% of the Spanish Flu. Remember that known cases will usually have more serious reactions than less serious cases - milder cases won't go to doctors. I am hoping that this ends up being an overreaction. That said, SARS most definitely wasn't, and I wonder if we could make life a lot better if we generally treated the common cold and flu the same way, preventing the outbreaks in the first place.
- Fomite 7y ago
  I am an epidemiologist. Right now, the case fatality definition is bonkers. 2.3% is the low estimate, and it goes way up. The high estimate is 91%. That's just a uselessly broad figure because it's still very early days. If I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably around the level of SARS/MERS.
  - ebiester 7y ago
    I made the mistake of assuming the official numbers being reported were accurate. If the Weibo rumors are true, this is truly scary and uncontrolled within China.

I feel like it has been so long since the swine flu, bird flu, H1N1 flu, and other flu scares that we are due for one. Like the recessions the flu scares are cyclical.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

codegeek 7y ago

Don't forget Ebola scare as well.

Fjolsvith 7y ago
Ah, but they've developed a vaccine for Ebola. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fda-approved-vaccine-prevention-ebola-virus-disease-marking-critical-milestone-public-health https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/first-fd...

sveme 7y ago

Maybe it‘s like acid rain - the scare is keeping it from becoming what it could potentially be. And at some point there will definitely be a major pandemic.

option 7y ago
define “major pandemic”. By % of humans affected the trend was very clearly towards almost 0. By absolute number of people affected it also has been trending down since around 1900 despite the population growth

mAritz 7y ago

Bird flu (H5N8) is actually back in central Europe right now, coming in through eastern Europe from Central Asia.

eecc 7y ago
We’re all sickened for about two weeks already... this year’s flu is definitely a thing, although seems to be contained in the NL (personal, anecdotal evidence)
- mAritz 7y ago
  Bird Flu spreads very rarely to Humans, you're probably talking about other flu viruses or just the common cold.

koheripbal 7y ago

Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation. The same is not true in virology. There is no "pent up" mechanism that needs to periodically release an outbreak. It is entirely random and in these types of outbreaks simply becomes more likely when many animal species exist in close proximity, allowing virus cross-over. It's no coincidence this happened in a live animal market. One exception to cyclic nature is immunity. In cases where the same disease outbreaks because the human population is no longer immune - ie the Black Death which returned every couple generations in the old world. ...but that phenomenon only applies to SAME disease returning - not different ones.

mrtksn 7y ago
Maybe the mechanism is in the cynicism. After some time people forget why they are freaking out over something that never happened as far as they remember. A bit like the Y2K bug that was supposed to end the world but nothing happened but nothing happened because we took measures successfully. There are many people out there using this as an example of alarmist to draw parallels with the climate change concerns. Maybe we as a species need to have people around who remember things and when they are gone we simply re-learn the lessons. Writing seems to be effective on passing the knowledge on how to do or avoid things but not very effective about the reasons.
autokad 7y ago
black plague in England was on a 20 year cycle I hear.
btilly 7y ago
Recessions happen somewhat cyclically because imbalances build up in the economy that ultimately cause some sort of dislocation. Actually recessions seem to be driven by random events. Our brains impose a cyclic explanation on what is actually a stochastic process. See https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/economic-insights/2019/q1/eiq119-predicting-recessions.pdf https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/pu... for more.
glofish 7y ago

munificent 7y ago

The Spanish Flu was almost exactly 100 years ago. Recent enough that we think of it as being in modern times with relatively modern medicine and hospitals. My grandmother lived through it, so this isn't the distant past. Current estimates are that it killed up to 100,000,000 million people, as many as the black plague. We have much better medicine now, thankfully. But we also live in a much more deeply connected world with millions of people flying every single day.

sib 7y ago
Great book about this (and, more broadly, the rise of medicine as a scientific endeavor): https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491/ https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0143036491/
- cguess 7y ago
  Seconded: I just finished this last week, really great historical piece, doesn't leave much out.
notadoc 7y ago
> We have much better medicine now, thankfully. Do we? Against a deadly and virulent flu virus causing viral pneumonia? Not really without development of a highly effective vaccine. You have better life support, but that's about it. Something like ECMO is extremely invasive and limited to maybe a few per ICU.
- refurb 7y ago
  We have anti-virals now, when back then we didn't. Not sure if they'd actually work on these strains, but it's something.
  - Haga 7y ago
    We also have extreme cases like the rabies survivor, using a introduced coma as measurement.
- 7y ago

ebiester 7y ago

First, this isn't a flu. This is a coronavirus, related (but not identical) to both the common cold and (more closely due to subtypes) SARS. That said, while I am not an epidemiologist, this doesn't seem nearly as fatal - about a 2% compared to a 9.5% of SARS and 10-15% of the Spanish Flu. Remember that known cases will usually have more serious reactions than less serious cases - milder cases won't go to doctors. I am hoping that this ends up being an overreaction. That said, SARS most definitely wasn't, and I wonder if we could make life a lot better if we generally treated the common cold and flu the same way, preventing the outbreaks in the first place.

Fomite 7y ago
I am an epidemiologist. Right now, the case fatality definition is bonkers. 2.3% is the low estimate, and it goes way up. The high estimate is 91%. That's just a uselessly broad figure because it's still very early days. If I had to guess, I'd guess it's probably around the level of SARS/MERS.
- ebiester 7y ago
  I made the mistake of assuming the official numbers being reported were accurate. If the Weibo rumors are true, this is truly scary and uncontrolled within China.