I agree with your points, except for not knowing whether you have good chances or not of landing a TT position, say at a top R1 institution. The world is full o

I agree with your points, except for not knowing whether you have good chances or not of landing a TT position, say at a top R1 institution. The world is full of delusional people, and I have been among those a few times, but especially if you are doing your Ph.D. or a postdoc in a good lab, that is a lab that produces TT material, you know your chances. Then, life outcomes are probabilistic – looking back, my chances were at 5% (which does not mean that I have to apply to x positions to have > 50% probability of getting a TT position, it means that if we have 100 replicates of myself on the job market for 5 years, only 5 will get an offer). My "it-will-be-different-for-me" syndrome was one of the reasons I found for why people still want to have an academic career when most academics are (quite vocally) miserable: burdened by endless bureaucratic work, often bullied by more powerful or astute colleagues, constantly receiving the complaints of students and committees, and brutally rejected on the regular by granting agencies, reviewers, and conference organizers. Most think or hope it will be different for them. But very likely, it won't be.