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Do you hold stock investments? I just sometimes wonder if people who overthink what the stock market is or isn’t has missed out on the 10 year market and now t

by tempsy 7y ago

Do you hold stock investments? I just sometimes wonder if people who overthink what the stock market is or isn’t has missed out on the 10 year market and now trying to justify their decision.

falcolas 7y ago
Outside my 401k, no. I didn't have enough money to put into the stock market. And frankly, even now I wouldn't dare; I don't think I'll ever grok how investors work well enough to take the risk. Especially since the transaction fees set an artificial floor on how much I need to get out of any given buy/sell transaction.
- deanmoriarty 7y ago
  > Especially since the transaction fees set an artificial floor on how much I need to get out of any given buy/sell transaction. The vast majority of US brokerages nowadays allow you to trade index funds ETFs completely for free (Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, ...), and in some common cases also individual stocks (RH, ...), so this point shouldn’t be a factor. I personally have a 7 figure portfolio invested in diversified index funds, and couldn’t be happier and can very much sleep at night (including in 2009 and even last year after US equities dropped 19% in a few days). Just last year my returns have been astronomical, much higher than what I have saved from my paychecks, and I rebalanced some of that into bonds, like I usually do.
  - falcolas 7y ago
    I looked up Schwab's costs, and boy are there are a lot of asterixes there, and a lot of "It could be zero, it could be 1%, it could be $50... it depends". > I personally have a 7 figure portfolio And how much have you put into that? Six figures? Seven figures? It was probably not 4 figures.
    - deanmoriarty 7y ago
      > I looked up Schwab's costs, and boy are there are a lot of asterixes there I have been a Vanguard customer for 15 years, always invested in index funds, and never ever paid even just $0.01 in transaction fees. And the other brokerages are virtually just the same, there is a lot of healthy competition so everyone offers their index funds with free trading. You really have to go out of your way to pay fees (e.g. buy derivatives or some weird mutual fund with fees). > And how much have you put into that? I keep track of it in several spreadsheets, and as of today 40% of my portfolio comes from direct contributions, and 60% is market returns. The beauty of it is that the longer you keep your portfolio running, the wider this ratio gets (due to compounding effects) while keeping the same risk tolerance. > It was probably not 4 figures. No reasonable investment would allow you to go from 4 figures to 7 figures in a decade — maybe in 30 years. I am not a speculative investor, I don’t buy bitcoin nor Tesla nor single stocks. I invest in world-diversified index funds since my risk appetite is heavily skewed towards capital preservation rather than 100x returns.
      - falcolas 7y ago
        So at least 6 figures went into it, somewhere between $400,000 and $4M. The simple ability to invest that much money over 15 years puts you in exceptionally rare air. A vast majority of people can't afford to save over $27,000 per year, let alone invest it. Your financial stability, even minus your investments, are likely at a point that a vast, vast majority of people are incapable of reaching (short of a lottery ticket, or similar event). I'd also point out that, as an investor of hundreds of thousands of dollars, you get concessions from brokers that people investing hundreds or thousands of dollars don't get. You're a top-tier investor. Not elite, but orders of magnitude above from the median. I'm happy for you. I really am. But it's important to understand that most of the US, let alone the world, is incapable of reaching the same heights as you.
    - tempsy 7y ago
      Schwab is zero commission now for stocks...Not sure what you’re looking at.
- tempsy 7y ago
  Most brokerages are now commission free, and even if you had to pay $10 per trade you are again overthinking things unless you planned on day trading which it doesn’t sound like you are. Stop overthinking. It’s costing you a lot of money.
  - falcolas 7y ago
    With all due respect (and frankly the smug superiority is causing any due respect to plummet), what part of "I don't have money to invest" do you not understand? Paying off debts is providing a lot more bang for the buck than any other investment.
    - tempsy 7y ago
      I saw the past tense “didn’t” and assumed something changed. I don’t know what your interest rate is on debt but the market returned 30% last year. If you have an interest rate that is lower than, say, 6-7% then it’s not clear that paying off debt is necessarily better than investing.
icedchai 7y ago
I've been investing for over 20 years, since the late 90's. I've met many folks, most of them engineers, who are just scared to invest. It takes practice. You gotta screw up and learn from your mistakes, like anything else. I keep about 75% of my investments in index funds (Vanguard) and another 25% in direct stock investments. Last years returns were about 29% on the funds, 37% on my stocks. 2019 was totally insane. 2018 was not so good. I barely broke even!
- tempsy 7y ago
  Yes Apple, Shopify, Nvidia, and Alibaba all big winners for me last year.
  - icedchai 7y ago
    My biggest winners are AMD and MSFT here! Also did well with OKTA.
bostonvaulter2 7y ago
Another statistic to keep in mind is that the bottom 80% have a basically negligible amount of money in the stock market.

by tempsy 7y ago

Do you hold stock investments? I just sometimes wonder if people who overthink what the stock market is or isn’t has missed out on the 10 year market and now trying to justify their decision.

falcolas 7y ago

Outside my 401k, no. I didn't have enough money to put into the stock market. And frankly, even now I wouldn't dare; I don't think I'll ever grok how investors work well enough to take the risk. Especially since the transaction fees set an artificial floor on how much I need to get out of any given buy/sell transaction.

deanmoriarty 7y ago
> Especially since the transaction fees set an artificial floor on how much I need to get out of any given buy/sell transaction. The vast majority of US brokerages nowadays allow you to trade index funds ETFs completely for free (Vanguard, Fidelity, Schwab, ...), and in some common cases also individual stocks (RH, ...), so this point shouldn’t be a factor. I personally have a 7 figure portfolio invested in diversified index funds, and couldn’t be happier and can very much sleep at night (including in 2009 and even last year after US equities dropped 19% in a few days). Just last year my returns have been astronomical, much higher than what I have saved from my paychecks, and I rebalanced some of that into bonds, like I usually do.
- falcolas 7y ago
  I looked up Schwab's costs, and boy are there are a lot of asterixes there, and a lot of "It could be zero, it could be 1%, it could be $50... it depends". > I personally have a 7 figure portfolio And how much have you put into that? Six figures? Seven figures? It was probably not 4 figures.
  - deanmoriarty 7y ago
    > I looked up Schwab's costs, and boy are there are a lot of asterixes there I have been a Vanguard customer for 15 years, always invested in index funds, and never ever paid even just $0.01 in transaction fees. And the other brokerages are virtually just the same, there is a lot of healthy competition so everyone offers their index funds with free trading. You really have to go out of your way to pay fees (e.g. buy derivatives or some weird mutual fund with fees). > And how much have you put into that? I keep track of it in several spreadsheets, and as of today 40% of my portfolio comes from direct contributions, and 60% is market returns. The beauty of it is that the longer you keep your portfolio running, the wider this ratio gets (due to compounding effects) while keeping the same risk tolerance. > It was probably not 4 figures. No reasonable investment would allow you to go from 4 figures to 7 figures in a decade — maybe in 30 years. I am not a speculative investor, I don’t buy bitcoin nor Tesla nor single stocks. I invest in world-diversified index funds since my risk appetite is heavily skewed towards capital preservation rather than 100x returns.
    - falcolas 7y ago
      So at least 6 figures went into it, somewhere between $400,000 and $4M. The simple ability to invest that much money over 15 years puts you in exceptionally rare air. A vast majority of people can't afford to save over $27,000 per year, let alone invest it. Your financial stability, even minus your investments, are likely at a point that a vast, vast majority of people are incapable of reaching (short of a lottery ticket, or similar event). I'd also point out that, as an investor of hundreds of thousands of dollars, you get concessions from brokers that people investing hundreds or thousands of dollars don't get. You're a top-tier investor. Not elite, but orders of magnitude above from the median. I'm happy for you. I really am. But it's important to understand that most of the US, let alone the world, is incapable of reaching the same heights as you.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    Schwab is zero commission now for stocks...Not sure what you’re looking at.
tempsy 7y ago
Most brokerages are now commission free, and even if you had to pay $10 per trade you are again overthinking things unless you planned on day trading which it doesn’t sound like you are. Stop overthinking. It’s costing you a lot of money.
- falcolas 7y ago
  With all due respect (and frankly the smug superiority is causing any due respect to plummet), what part of "I don't have money to invest" do you not understand? Paying off debts is providing a lot more bang for the buck than any other investment.
  - tempsy 7y ago
    I saw the past tense “didn’t” and assumed something changed. I don’t know what your interest rate is on debt but the market returned 30% last year. If you have an interest rate that is lower than, say, 6-7% then it’s not clear that paying off debt is necessarily better than investing.

icedchai 7y ago

I've been investing for over 20 years, since the late 90's. I've met many folks, most of them engineers, who are just scared to invest. It takes practice. You gotta screw up and learn from your mistakes, like anything else. I keep about 75% of my investments in index funds (Vanguard) and another 25% in direct stock investments. Last years returns were about 29% on the funds, 37% on my stocks. 2019 was totally insane. 2018 was not so good. I barely broke even!

tempsy 7y ago
Yes Apple, Shopify, Nvidia, and Alibaba all big winners for me last year.
- icedchai 7y ago
  My biggest winners are AMD and MSFT here! Also did well with OKTA.

bostonvaulter2 7y ago

Another statistic to keep in mind is that the bottom 80% have a basically negligible amount of money in the stock market.