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The original average was set in 1868. Isn't it likely that this is just a measurement/calibration/methodology error?
by mechhacker 7y ago
The original average was set in 1868.
Isn't it likely that this is just a measurement/calibration/methodology error?
- pseudoramble 7y agoThey do mention this in the article: > As part of the study, the authors investigated the possibility that the decrease could simply reflect improvements in thermometer technology; thermometers used today are far more accurate than those used two centuries ago. “In the 19thcentury, thermometry was just beginning,” Parsonnet said. > To assess whether temperatures truly decreased, the researchers checked for body temperature trends within each dataset; for each historical group, they expected that measurements would be taken with similar thermometers. Within the veterans dataset, they observed a similar decrease for each decade, consistent with observations made using the combined data.
- mikedilger 7y agoI'm unconvinced by their method to assess whether temperatures truly decreased. Why wouldn't a methodological error not also apply to the veterans dataset? E.g. all thermometers of an era reading slightly hot (rather than them all being less accurate in any direction)
- pseudoramble 7y agoYeah, fair point! I'm not well versed in this kind of stuff. So I'm not sure. Maybe the original paper discusses the point though? Perhaps they have a way to normalize temperatures to a baseline across all data sets and evaluate that way.