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Not exactly a book, Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States. (1) It raises s

Not exactly a book, Assessing and Strengthening the Manufacturing and Defense Industrial Base and Supply Chain Resiliency of the United States. (1) It raises some concerns that folks in this forum are probably interested in and could do something about. Things like forcing US companies doing business in China to transfer dual-use technologies, the lack of US suppliers for certain goods, like high tenacity polyester fiber, domestic production of PCBs, specialized glass for NVG systems, a shortage of software engineers, but also shortages in skilled trades, like welders. The dominance of the Chinese in certain critical industries is also problematic. For example one manufacturer produces 70% of small drones, which then creates secondary attack surfaces, like lack of security on the drone’s link. Another is the Chinese takeover of solar panel manufacturing, which creates a potential energy security risk. For those skeptical of any report from the current administration, I would refer you to Ash Carter’s Inside the Five-Sided Box (2) which raises many of the same issues. (1) https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASSESSING-AND-STRENGTHENING-THE-MANUFACTURING-AND%20DEFENSE-INDUSTRIAL-BASE-AND-SUPPLY-CHAIN-RESILIENCY.PDF https://media.defense.gov/2018/Oct/05/2002048904/-1/-1/1/ASS... (2) https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Five-Sided-Box-Lifetime-Leadership/dp/1524743917 https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Five-Sided-Box-Lifetime-Leader...

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago
I really hope something is done about this. I worry that our country is largely losing its ability to produce anything.
- syshum 7y ago
  While Manufacturing in the US is down, no doubt. We are still the 2nd largest manufacturer. I do hope we return to being #1, though that becomes less likely every day.
  - bordercases 7y ago
    USA will recover more quickly from a manufacturing slump due to the other assets it has or can acquire. Many other economies are dependent to some extent on the US. But it's going to be a big dip globally.
    - fasthandle 7y ago
      Re-tooling workers between industries in more developed countries is much easier, because of a workforce that's expected to not just have a single skill or is trained/expected to support more than one. Quality in the west also has potential for strength because of greater devolution to the production floor. But I do have a problem with saying 'west' vs 'east', everyone can learn from each other. I have problems with assumptions of superiority. Could framing it as a question of learning and leadership be better?
      - bordercases 7y ago
        > Quality in the west also has potential for strength because of greater devolution to the production floor. What do you mean? > But I do have a problem with saying 'west' vs 'east', everyone can learn from each other. I have problems with assumptions of superiority. Could framing it as a question of learning and leadership be better? I think it's better put through the frame of negotiation. That's typically how the boundaries of any exchange internationally are set up to be fair and, depending on the goodwill between parties and their negotiating style, are mutually beneficial or mutually non-harmful. "East" and "West" are also drastic simplifications which I'm sure you're aware of, but you don't get the evidential fodder for analyzing negotiation structures. This includes motives, positions, interests and personal players. Like for example if I said "Eastern Europe versus Western Europe" I'd be conflating the interest of multiple countries and would be missing out on the history between Germany versus Russia (not a lot of goodwill), or Merkle versus Putin (maybe some goodwill due to her East German background?).
spectramax 7y ago
As an American, we need to bolster our manufacturing in areas where IP to manufacturing output ratio is high. What I mean is, thrift manufacturing of useless gadgets we see on Amazon front page is trivial and does not add any value. Advancing semiconductor manufacturing for example is hard, and that's exactly why we need to do it. China has prowess in centralization and consolidation of their sub-supply chain - but that can be done in Thailand (Casio started making their $10-20 watches in Thailand since 2016, for e.g.), Vietnam, Indonesia, India, etc. Making cellphone cases by the millions is not adding any intellectual value in the society. These problems have been solved. I am old enough to remember "Made in USA" was a real marketing asset. We've lost our shine, just watch the Apollo 11 documentary (2019), it is an eye-opener. We need a new leader in this country that can inspire men and women to be passionate again, dissolve political differences and behold the American spirit. It is still there.
- bordercases 7y ago
  > China has prowess in centralization and consolidation of their sub-supply chain - but that can be done in Thailand (Casio started making their $10-20 watches in Thailand since 2016, for e.g.), Vietnam, Indonesia, India, etc. Making cellphone cases by the millions is not adding any intellectual value in the society. These problems have been solved. On this – China's One Belt One Road initiative specifically targets many of these countries to come together into a consolidated economic alliance that includes trade routes and infrastructure subsidies plus a basket currency pegged to the GDP from the region. That's clever for a number of reasons. One of them is that it captures the revenue from precisely these alternative manufacturing bases that could otherwise be competing with China. It may or may not be successful depending on how aggressive China is or whether or not they keep up the same business practices and culture that make companies want to take manufacturing out of Shenzen in the first place. There's a massive political opportunity for the US but I think there's a lack of strategy in the administration to seize it.
- dublin 7y ago
  Sounds like we need someone who wants to Make America Great Again...
contingencies 7y ago
It reflects badly on HN that the #1 response to an intellectual question views the world through an obsolete lens of nationalism.
- waste_monk 7y ago
  The problem is when you let your shields down and unfriendly nations that DO believe in nationalism decide to take advantage of you. Similar to the whole "no one wants to be the second to last guy to get rid of all their nuclear weapons" thing.
- swsieber 7y ago
  Would you rather HN ignore that nationalism still exists and can have wide reaching effects?
- bordercases 7y ago
  International cooperation is only really feasible with a hegemon. Pick a hegemon. You should pick the US.
  - pergadad 7y ago
    Ask all the countries the US invaded or where it initiated coups for its own interests... most of South America and the middle East saw themselves at the receiving end of such events. I personally would prefer the US over China but I'd also prefer NO hegemon, especially when that hegemon tends to abuse its power.
    - bordercases 7y ago
      > I personally would prefer the US over China but I'd also prefer NO hegemon, especially when that hegemon tends to abuse its power. There's the question of whether this is structurally possible. IR theorists disagree on this issue although I favor the realist view which is that international conflict is more or less inevitable and having a central powerful mediator of conflict is necessary for peace. Multi-polar worlds can be catastrophically unstable as they enforce no singular set of rules. A multi-polar world with a hegemonic focal point can (hopefully!) construct bounds on state behavior while still avoiding some of the evils from deigning to be unipolar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory US forpol has a lot of mistakes and flutters around too much per administration, but they are still uniquely positioned to act as a hegemon with at least some pretense of domestic freedom and mutually beneficial economic cooperation.
pergadad 7y ago
It's interesting that all of this is only a problem if China is indeed an/the enemy. In fact mutual dependence is one of the key elements of Europe's narrative since WW2 - "if we all exchange and trade we will not make war against each other." On the one hand not surprising that a War/Defense-Ministry funded documentary has this underlying premise of 'China is the enemy'. On the other hand we should really wonder: where the hell are we headed and how can we change this trajectory?
- jeswin 7y ago
  What happens if Taiwan is invaded? Would the US stay neutral, or at that point would China become an enemy? If the US stays neutral, then who is a friend? You can only be truly friends with people who share your principles and values. Not all of them, but most or many of them.
  - crimsonalucard 7y ago
    If China childishly invades Taiwan then the US would have to childishly declare war. Isn't the whole point of the united states to be inclusive of all principles and values. I think the whole rivalry from both sides is more because China is projected to surpass the US economically. The US wants to keep its dominance out of pride and China wants to dethrone it, also out of pride. It's more of childish pride thing but at the same time both countries can potentially burn everything down if they act on the urge.
    - killjoywashere 7y ago
      You should read "The Dictator's Handbook". Dictators may be driven to externally irrational behavior by what appear internally to be an entirely rational chain of decisions. And I mean rational in the Homo economus sense of the word. https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845 https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...
      - crimsonalucard 7y ago
jslove 7y ago
And canada could shutdown NYC power. "Blame Canada" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA

3fe9a03ccd14ca5 7y ago

I really hope something is done about this. I worry that our country is largely losing its ability to produce anything.

syshum 7y ago
While Manufacturing in the US is down, no doubt. We are still the 2nd largest manufacturer. I do hope we return to being #1, though that becomes less likely every day.
- bordercases 7y ago
  USA will recover more quickly from a manufacturing slump due to the other assets it has or can acquire. Many other economies are dependent to some extent on the US. But it's going to be a big dip globally.
  - fasthandle 7y ago
    Re-tooling workers between industries in more developed countries is much easier, because of a workforce that's expected to not just have a single skill or is trained/expected to support more than one. Quality in the west also has potential for strength because of greater devolution to the production floor. But I do have a problem with saying 'west' vs 'east', everyone can learn from each other. I have problems with assumptions of superiority. Could framing it as a question of learning and leadership be better?
    - bordercases 7y ago
      > Quality in the west also has potential for strength because of greater devolution to the production floor. What do you mean? > But I do have a problem with saying 'west' vs 'east', everyone can learn from each other. I have problems with assumptions of superiority. Could framing it as a question of learning and leadership be better? I think it's better put through the frame of negotiation. That's typically how the boundaries of any exchange internationally are set up to be fair and, depending on the goodwill between parties and their negotiating style, are mutually beneficial or mutually non-harmful. "East" and "West" are also drastic simplifications which I'm sure you're aware of, but you don't get the evidential fodder for analyzing negotiation structures. This includes motives, positions, interests and personal players. Like for example if I said "Eastern Europe versus Western Europe" I'd be conflating the interest of multiple countries and would be missing out on the history between Germany versus Russia (not a lot of goodwill), or Merkle versus Putin (maybe some goodwill due to her East German background?).

spectramax 7y ago

As an American, we need to bolster our manufacturing in areas where IP to manufacturing output ratio is high. What I mean is, thrift manufacturing of useless gadgets we see on Amazon front page is trivial and does not add any value. Advancing semiconductor manufacturing for example is hard, and that's exactly why we need to do it. China has prowess in centralization and consolidation of their sub-supply chain - but that can be done in Thailand (Casio started making their $10-20 watches in Thailand since 2016, for e.g.), Vietnam, Indonesia, India, etc. Making cellphone cases by the millions is not adding any intellectual value in the society. These problems have been solved. I am old enough to remember "Made in USA" was a real marketing asset. We've lost our shine, just watch the Apollo 11 documentary (2019), it is an eye-opener. We need a new leader in this country that can inspire men and women to be passionate again, dissolve political differences and behold the American spirit. It is still there.

bordercases 7y ago
> China has prowess in centralization and consolidation of their sub-supply chain - but that can be done in Thailand (Casio started making their $10-20 watches in Thailand since 2016, for e.g.), Vietnam, Indonesia, India, etc. Making cellphone cases by the millions is not adding any intellectual value in the society. These problems have been solved. On this – China's One Belt One Road initiative specifically targets many of these countries to come together into a consolidated economic alliance that includes trade routes and infrastructure subsidies plus a basket currency pegged to the GDP from the region. That's clever for a number of reasons. One of them is that it captures the revenue from precisely these alternative manufacturing bases that could otherwise be competing with China. It may or may not be successful depending on how aggressive China is or whether or not they keep up the same business practices and culture that make companies want to take manufacturing out of Shenzen in the first place. There's a massive political opportunity for the US but I think there's a lack of strategy in the administration to seize it.
dublin 7y ago
Sounds like we need someone who wants to Make America Great Again...

contingencies 7y ago

It reflects badly on HN that the #1 response to an intellectual question views the world through an obsolete lens of nationalism.

waste_monk 7y ago
The problem is when you let your shields down and unfriendly nations that DO believe in nationalism decide to take advantage of you. Similar to the whole "no one wants to be the second to last guy to get rid of all their nuclear weapons" thing.
swsieber 7y ago
Would you rather HN ignore that nationalism still exists and can have wide reaching effects?
bordercases 7y ago
International cooperation is only really feasible with a hegemon. Pick a hegemon. You should pick the US.
- pergadad 7y ago
  Ask all the countries the US invaded or where it initiated coups for its own interests... most of South America and the middle East saw themselves at the receiving end of such events. I personally would prefer the US over China but I'd also prefer NO hegemon, especially when that hegemon tends to abuse its power.
  - bordercases 7y ago
    > I personally would prefer the US over China but I'd also prefer NO hegemon, especially when that hegemon tends to abuse its power. There's the question of whether this is structurally possible. IR theorists disagree on this issue although I favor the realist view which is that international conflict is more or less inevitable and having a central powerful mediator of conflict is necessary for peace. Multi-polar worlds can be catastrophically unstable as they enforce no singular set of rules. A multi-polar world with a hegemonic focal point can (hopefully!) construct bounds on state behavior while still avoiding some of the evils from deigning to be unipolar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegemonic_stability_theory US forpol has a lot of mistakes and flutters around too much per administration, but they are still uniquely positioned to act as a hegemon with at least some pretense of domestic freedom and mutually beneficial economic cooperation.

pergadad 7y ago

It's interesting that all of this is only a problem if China is indeed an/the enemy. In fact mutual dependence is one of the key elements of Europe's narrative since WW2 - "if we all exchange and trade we will not make war against each other." On the one hand not surprising that a War/Defense-Ministry funded documentary has this underlying premise of 'China is the enemy'. On the other hand we should really wonder: where the hell are we headed and how can we change this trajectory?

jeswin 7y ago
What happens if Taiwan is invaded? Would the US stay neutral, or at that point would China become an enemy? If the US stays neutral, then who is a friend? You can only be truly friends with people who share your principles and values. Not all of them, but most or many of them.
- crimsonalucard 7y ago
  If China childishly invades Taiwan then the US would have to childishly declare war. Isn't the whole point of the united states to be inclusive of all principles and values. I think the whole rivalry from both sides is more because China is projected to surpass the US economically. The US wants to keep its dominance out of pride and China wants to dethrone it, also out of pride. It's more of childish pride thing but at the same time both countries can potentially burn everything down if they act on the urge.
  - killjoywashere 7y ago
    You should read "The Dictator's Handbook". Dictators may be driven to externally irrational behavior by what appear internally to be an entirely rational chain of decisions. And I mean rational in the Homo economus sense of the word. https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Politics/dp/1610391845 https://www.amazon.com/Dictators-Handbook-Behavior-Almost-Po...
    - crimsonalucard 7y ago

jslove 7y ago

And canada could shutdown NYC power. "Blame Canada" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOR38552MJA