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The yuan won’t be freely convertible because that would open the floodgates to capital flight from China. As long as that possibility exists, free convertibilit

by MR4D 7y ago

The yuan won’t be freely convertible because that would open the floodgates to capital flight from China. As long as that possibility exists, free convertibility will not.

cinquemb 7y ago
Yeah, on top of the issues of infrastructure around payments/settlements/collateral management/kyc laws that often go ignored in these discussions as well as the high correlation of lowering (euro)dollar usage globally with lower global growth rates… ideally you'd have higher growth rates with lower (euro)dollar usage if there was any serious alternative. Fundamentally speaking, I think non CB backed cryptos (combined with hedging tools via futures/options/swaps/ndfs/etc) have a better chance because they can be used to lower the costs intl of payments/settlements/etc, esp in these times when the trust in central banking becomes more and more contested. But I only see this happening slowly until there's a catalyst to push this to the next level.
- erikpukinskis 7y ago
  I would expect cryptocurrency to ascend in a series of hops, “chaos is a ladder” style. Every time a central bank somewhere takes home their toys, crypto will click forward.
  - cinquemb 7y ago
    Yeah, that's probably a better way to put what I think I wanted to get at.
meerita 7y ago
Actually they're flooding with yuans. 2018 and 19 they opened the gates to avoid the economy crash.
- MR4D 7y ago
  Flooding their market. Converting to dollars or other currencies is still very limited. [1] and [2] 1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/after-a-decade-of-drama-china-s-yuan-reform-has-far-way-to-go https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/after-a-d... 2 - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capital-outflow-controls-have-gone-extreme-former https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/c...

by MR4D 7y ago

The yuan won’t be freely convertible because that would open the floodgates to capital flight from China. As long as that possibility exists, free convertibility will not.

cinquemb 7y ago

Yeah, on top of the issues of infrastructure around payments/settlements/collateral management/kyc laws that often go ignored in these discussions as well as the high correlation of lowering (euro)dollar usage globally with lower global growth rates… ideally you'd have higher growth rates with lower (euro)dollar usage if there was any serious alternative. Fundamentally speaking, I think non CB backed cryptos (combined with hedging tools via futures/options/swaps/ndfs/etc) have a better chance because they can be used to lower the costs intl of payments/settlements/etc, esp in these times when the trust in central banking becomes more and more contested. But I only see this happening slowly until there's a catalyst to push this to the next level.

erikpukinskis 7y ago
I would expect cryptocurrency to ascend in a series of hops, “chaos is a ladder” style. Every time a central bank somewhere takes home their toys, crypto will click forward.
- cinquemb 7y ago
  Yeah, that's probably a better way to put what I think I wanted to get at.

meerita 7y ago

Actually they're flooding with yuans. 2018 and 19 they opened the gates to avoid the economy crash.

MR4D 7y ago
Flooding their market. Converting to dollars or other currencies is still very limited. [1] and [2] 1 - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/after-a-decade-of-drama-china-s-yuan-reform-has-far-way-to-go https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-12/after-a-d... 2 - https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/chinas-capital-outflow-controls-have-gone-extreme-former https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3012312/c...