As far as i understand it the RANSAC arguments are very much not Bayesian (they're all about "if you repeat this an infinite number of times under an infinite n

As far as i understand it the RANSAC arguments are very much not Bayesian (they're all about "if you repeat this an infinite number of times under an infinite number of new samples, then...", which is almost caricaturely frequentist). Still, you just gave me reason to mention one of my favorite "no, that won't work either" paper :) on how Bayes will not save you in the presence of model misspecification. Instead of butchering it any further, I'll just point you to this piece explaining the work, written by the author of the paper himself: http://bactra.org/weblog/601.html http://bactra.org/weblog/601.html