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Well, this makes sense, because nobody buys a van every year. It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many

Well, this makes sense, because nobody buys a van every year. It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. If an electric van can reduce operating costs by several orders of magnitude, it might make sense for fleet owners to switch over ASAP. Especially if their competitors do it first.

zaroth 7y ago
> It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. What I quoted was annual new van sales. ~500k new vans purchased per year, growing at about 5% per year. A massive operating efficiency improvement might draw forward some new purchases / push existing vans into early retirement. Cost savings would definitely not be anywhere near an order of magnitude, but e.g. if TCO could go from $0.55 a mile conceivably to $0.40 a mile that would be very compelling. (Based on 15,000 miles a year, that would mean $8,250 goes to $6,000, saving $2,250) Note that TCO is including financing, taxes, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, and fuel. Fuel is about 30% of the TCO, so cutting fuel costs has a large effect. Depreciation on vans (after the first year) is pretty meager. Cratering resale value of ICE vans in the face of cheaper to operate EV vans will accelerate the transition to EV vans, but there’s still an adoption curve and an infrastructure challenge to face. The market share for EV vans is essentially 0 today.
anpago 7y ago
Although they might not buy regularly a lot of Vans especially now with the huge delivery to end users market. The van is the public's face of the company. A scruffy delivery person looking hassled as long as not rude or disrespectful to your goods and turn up when expected most don't care about. As they know otherwise they will end up paying more for delivery... But a smoke belching van will get people commenting from my experience. At least in the UK people don't care much for the reg number (age) of a companies vehicle. But will size up a companies entire environmental policy on the eco credentials of the final step.

zaroth 7y ago

> It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. What I quoted was annual new van sales. ~500k new vans purchased per year, growing at about 5% per year. A massive operating efficiency improvement might draw forward some new purchases / push existing vans into early retirement. Cost savings would definitely not be anywhere near an order of magnitude, but e.g. if TCO could go from $0.55 a mile conceivably to $0.40 a mile that would be very compelling. (Based on 15,000 miles a year, that would mean $8,250 goes to $6,000, saving $2,250) Note that TCO is including financing, taxes, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, and fuel. Fuel is about 30% of the TCO, so cutting fuel costs has a large effect. Depreciation on vans (after the first year) is pretty meager. Cratering resale value of ICE vans in the face of cheaper to operate EV vans will accelerate the transition to EV vans, but there’s still an adoption curve and an infrastructure challenge to face. The market share for EV vans is essentially 0 today.

anpago 7y ago

Although they might not buy regularly a lot of Vans especially now with the huge delivery to end users market. The van is the public's face of the company. A scruffy delivery person looking hassled as long as not rude or disrespectful to your goods and turn up when expected most don't care about. As they know otherwise they will end up paying more for delivery... But a smoke belching van will get people commenting from my experience. At least in the UK people don't care much for the reg number (age) of a companies vehicle. But will size up a companies entire environmental policy on the eco credentials of the final step.