4 ms·

FYI, as of Q4 Tesla is now selling roughly the same number of Model 3 cars (worldwide) as the entire US commercial van market. The vans also have significantly

by zaroth 7y ago

FYI, as of Q4 Tesla is now selling roughly the same number of Model 3 cars (worldwide) as the entire US commercial van market. The vans also have significantly lower ASP. The US passenger car market is orders of magnitude larger than the commercial van market. 500k units vs 18 million units per year. $9 billion versus $650 billion in total annual sales. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-commercial-van-sales-figures-by-model/ https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-commercial-van-sales-f...

nexuist 7y ago
Well, this makes sense, because nobody buys a van every year. It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. If an electric van can reduce operating costs by several orders of magnitude, it might make sense for fleet owners to switch over ASAP. Especially if their competitors do it first.
- zaroth 7y ago
  > It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. What I quoted was annual new van sales. ~500k new vans purchased per year, growing at about 5% per year. A massive operating efficiency improvement might draw forward some new purchases / push existing vans into early retirement. Cost savings would definitely not be anywhere near an order of magnitude, but e.g. if TCO could go from $0.55 a mile conceivably to $0.40 a mile that would be very compelling. (Based on 15,000 miles a year, that would mean $8,250 goes to $6,000, saving $2,250) Note that TCO is including financing, taxes, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, and fuel. Fuel is about 30% of the TCO, so cutting fuel costs has a large effect. Depreciation on vans (after the first year) is pretty meager. Cratering resale value of ICE vans in the face of cheaper to operate EV vans will accelerate the transition to EV vans, but there’s still an adoption curve and an infrastructure challenge to face. The market share for EV vans is essentially 0 today.
- anpago 7y ago
  Although they might not buy regularly a lot of Vans especially now with the huge delivery to end users market. The van is the public's face of the company. A scruffy delivery person looking hassled as long as not rude or disrespectful to your goods and turn up when expected most don't care about. As they know otherwise they will end up paying more for delivery... But a smoke belching van will get people commenting from my experience. At least in the UK people don't care much for the reg number (age) of a companies vehicle. But will size up a companies entire environmental policy on the eco credentials of the final step.
xixixao 7y ago
This is a good point, but isn’t the US skewed towards trucks (both big and consumer) over vans? I’m guessing from my experience living in the US and EU. (And those stats are likely counting consumer trucks into the passenger category). This also explains why Tesla is doing a big truck and passenger truck, but hasn’t announced a van yet - it’s building primarily for the domestic market.
- zaroth 7y ago
  The US is the largest single market for light commercial vehicles. That’s more than just vans, but I couldn’t easily find a statistic for just vans. I get the impression the EV vans are a good niche to play in for smaller players that don’t want to go head-to-head with Tesla.

by zaroth 7y ago

nexuist 7y ago

Well, this makes sense, because nobody buys a van every year. It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. If an electric van can reduce operating costs by several orders of magnitude, it might make sense for fleet owners to switch over ASAP. Especially if their competitors do it first.

zaroth 7y ago
> It would be more interesting to see the total amount of vans purchased in the country and how many of them are 2010 models, 2000 models, 1990 models, etc. What I quoted was annual new van sales. ~500k new vans purchased per year, growing at about 5% per year. A massive operating efficiency improvement might draw forward some new purchases / push existing vans into early retirement. Cost savings would definitely not be anywhere near an order of magnitude, but e.g. if TCO could go from $0.55 a mile conceivably to $0.40 a mile that would be very compelling. (Based on 15,000 miles a year, that would mean $8,250 goes to $6,000, saving $2,250) Note that TCO is including financing, taxes, insurance, depreciation, maintenance, repairs, and fuel. Fuel is about 30% of the TCO, so cutting fuel costs has a large effect. Depreciation on vans (after the first year) is pretty meager. Cratering resale value of ICE vans in the face of cheaper to operate EV vans will accelerate the transition to EV vans, but there’s still an adoption curve and an infrastructure challenge to face. The market share for EV vans is essentially 0 today.
anpago 7y ago
Although they might not buy regularly a lot of Vans especially now with the huge delivery to end users market. The van is the public's face of the company. A scruffy delivery person looking hassled as long as not rude or disrespectful to your goods and turn up when expected most don't care about. As they know otherwise they will end up paying more for delivery... But a smoke belching van will get people commenting from my experience. At least in the UK people don't care much for the reg number (age) of a companies vehicle. But will size up a companies entire environmental policy on the eco credentials of the final step.

xixixao 7y ago

This is a good point, but isn’t the US skewed towards trucks (both big and consumer) over vans? I’m guessing from my experience living in the US and EU. (And those stats are likely counting consumer trucks into the passenger category). This also explains why Tesla is doing a big truck and passenger truck, but hasn’t announced a van yet - it’s building primarily for the domestic market.

zaroth 7y ago
The US is the largest single market for light commercial vehicles. That’s more than just vans, but I couldn’t easily find a statistic for just vans. I get the impression the EV vans are a good niche to play in for smaller players that don’t want to go head-to-head with Tesla.