I would disagree that a dream is 'totally' incoherent or truly random, and I don't think it's necessarily inevitable that existence would feel coherent, which I

I would disagree that a dream is 'totally' incoherent or truly random, and I don't think it's necessarily inevitable that existence would feel coherent, which I take to be GP's point. There's a wide swath of possible sets of memories I could be given. Some coherent and belonging to a self. Some that seem to but that, given sufficient relfection, would turn out not to be, as when you wake up from a dream, and then some that, even when lucidly regarded in the moment appear to be nonsensical on their face. Of this range of possibilities, ones giving you a seemingly coherent and ordered timeline of experiences, or one that is disordered but close enough to order that it can be readily can be interpreted as ordered, would appear to be more improbable. >on that small of a timescale, your existence is really just a single instantaneous snapshot of a state of mind, and there’s no time to recall a sequence of memories or think through logical propositions. I think this is very true. Even being around long enough to pose the question to yourself gives you reasonably strong confidence that you've 'tested out' of being a boltzman brain. Though I think that consideration is being momentarily set aside for purposes of this variant of the thought experiment.