5 ms·

All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate. https://www.n

by m_ke 7y ago

All of the people I know who left NYC also left because of housing costs, even though New York has been putting up new housing at an insane rate. https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/ https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/mortgages/migration-study/

jefftk 7y ago
I don't see anything in your link about NYC putting up housing at an insane rate, and my understanding had been that NYC housing growth was at historically low levels?
- m_ke 7y ago
  Here's a link with some more data https://streeteasy.com/blog/nycs-unsold-condos/ https://streeteasy.com/blog/nycs-unsold-condos/. The rezoning and redevelopment of the queens and brooklyn waterfronts brought a ton of new high rise condos with it. I live in northern brooklyn and there's a new condo building being built on almost every block. At the same time there's more vacant storefronts than I've ever seen and the only businesses getting by are coffee shops, hair salons and trendy modern american restaurants that charge $18 for burgers and fries.
  - sologoub 7y ago
    If that’s not making enough of a dent, it’s not evidence that it’s not helping at all. Compared to CA, NYC is building like crazy from my anecdotal observation.
  - Spooky23 7y ago
    The storefronts are only there because of significant state tax credits for including them. Like all things real estate, there’s some other tax angle where the owners make more money demanding commercial rents above what the market can afford than actually renting it. They probably securitize the losses somehow.
  - jefftk 7y ago
    Your article talks about 16k condos over 6y, which is ~3k/y. That's not zero, but that's really not very much housing compared to the ~8M population of NYC. I know this isn't the total of New York housing construction, but it's so little you wouldn't expect it to help much. For example, during the 1920s NYC was building housing at about 7%/y! Housing was much cheaper then, and through the period of low demand, but when demand picked up again we didn't let people resume building at anywhere near historical rates.
    - jefftk 7y ago
      I found total construction numbers: ~25k new units in 2017, depending on how you count (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pd...) That's only about 0.3% housing growth.
      - jefftk 7y ago
        Sorry, I used 8M people as the denominator for growth instead of 3.5M units, so it's more like 0.7%
        jefftk 7y ago
        Expanded this into a post: https://www.jefftk.com/p/is-nyc-building-much-housing https://www.jefftk.com/p/is-nyc-building-much-housing
tmh79 7y ago
NY has not been putting up housing at an insane rate. Housing in NY is actually being constructed at one of the lowest rates in the last century. Adjusted for business cycles (we're in a peak now), NY is building less housing than they have build in ~100 years, and Manhattan is at its lowest density since the 1890s. The current period is only a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when basically no new housing was constructed.
- m_ke 7y ago
  Manhattan has a glut of luxury condos that are sitting vacant but Williamsburg, Bushwick, Greenpoint and LIC have seen a boom (https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-building-boom-pushes-new-york-city-outward-1540742400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-building-boom-pushes-new-york...) over the past few years. Commercial real estate has gone up a lot as well and has led to a ton of vacant retail space. My father had a carpentry shop in bushwick and just had his land lord triple their rent.
  - shuckles 7y ago
    The right metric is new homes per capita by which NYC is about as bad San Francisco.
  - tmh79 7y ago
    They have seen a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when literally zero new housing was built, they have not seen a boom relative to 1900 - 2009, especially when accounting for business cycle. I understand that you are seeing what you perceive to be a lot of housing construction, but relative to historical trends and population/household size trends, there is very little housing construction happening in NYC.
    - m_ke 7y ago
      The "boom" is relative to all of 2000s. Look at the number of permits in 2015 [1], especially in the outer boroughs. My argument, as someone who grew up in Brooklyn and Queens, is that building new housing doesn't really drive the prices down. I have a lot of friends who had to move or shut down their small businesses because of the rising costs. [1](https://www.buildingcongress.com/advocacy-and-reports/reports-and-analysis/construction-outlook-update/NYC-residential-building-permits-surged-past-56000-in-2015-a-67-percent-increase-from-the-height-of-the-previous-building-boom.html https://www.buildingcongress.com/advocacy-and-reports/report...) [2](https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/dob-development-report.html https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/dob-development-r...)
formerchamp 7y ago
It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.
- zionic 7y ago
  The entire idea is preposterous. The solution to affordable housing is oversupply of housing. Gov should incentivize new construction to reduce prices and let the market fix it.
  - kelnos 7y ago
    The problem is that in most areas the government is primarily voted in by existing landowners, who don't want more housing, and don't care if lower-income renters are being forced out. The non-landowners are either not abundant enough, or only plan to live here for a short enough period of time that they don't bother to get involved in local politics.
    - vineyardmike 7y ago
      While this is the whole "NIMBY" thing... is that really a problem? No one complains that Americans can't vote in Britains elections, to set their laws. The whole point of voting is that the people who actively live there get to decide what happens to their city.
      - micmil 7y ago
        Yes, that's a problem. Nobody that bought a home on the vague notion that they HAVE to make money off of it when they sell it will ever vote to have a homeless shelter built across the road.
      - kelnos 7y ago
        I think the cause and effect is intertwined. Many of the people who now plan to only stay for a few years have that attitude because they feel disenfranchised and locked out of the planning process, while at the same time being priced out of the ability to put down roots.
jcims 7y ago
Is it housing cost or housing risk? Is one thing to put a million dollars into a home and sell it for $1.4m five years later. It’s another thing to owe s million on a place that’s now worth $400k.
- phonebanshee 7y ago
  That's not a thing in California. Loans on residential property are non-recourse, so if you owe more than it's worth you just stop paying.

by m_ke 7y ago

jefftk 7y ago

I don't see anything in your link about NYC putting up housing at an insane rate, and my understanding had been that NYC housing growth was at historically low levels?

m_ke 7y ago
Here's a link with some more data https://streeteasy.com/blog/nycs-unsold-condos/ https://streeteasy.com/blog/nycs-unsold-condos/. The rezoning and redevelopment of the queens and brooklyn waterfronts brought a ton of new high rise condos with it. I live in northern brooklyn and there's a new condo building being built on almost every block. At the same time there's more vacant storefronts than I've ever seen and the only businesses getting by are coffee shops, hair salons and trendy modern american restaurants that charge $18 for burgers and fries.
- sologoub 7y ago
  If that’s not making enough of a dent, it’s not evidence that it’s not helping at all. Compared to CA, NYC is building like crazy from my anecdotal observation.
- Spooky23 7y ago
  The storefronts are only there because of significant state tax credits for including them. Like all things real estate, there’s some other tax angle where the owners make more money demanding commercial rents above what the market can afford than actually renting it. They probably securitize the losses somehow.
- jefftk 7y ago
  Your article talks about 16k condos over 6y, which is ~3k/y. That's not zero, but that's really not very much housing compared to the ~8M population of NYC. I know this isn't the total of New York housing construction, but it's so little you wouldn't expect it to help much. For example, during the 1920s NYC was building housing at about 7%/y! Housing was much cheaper then, and through the period of low demand, but when demand picked up again we didn't let people resume building at anywhere near historical rates.
  - jefftk 7y ago
    I found total construction numbers: ~25k new units in 2017, depending on how you count (https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pdf https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/rentguidelinesboard/pdf/18HSR.pd...) That's only about 0.3% housing growth.
    - jefftk 7y ago
      Sorry, I used 8M people as the denominator for growth instead of 3.5M units, so it's more like 0.7%
      - jefftk 7y ago
        Expanded this into a post: https://www.jefftk.com/p/is-nyc-building-much-housing https://www.jefftk.com/p/is-nyc-building-much-housing

tmh79 7y ago

NY has not been putting up housing at an insane rate. Housing in NY is actually being constructed at one of the lowest rates in the last century. Adjusted for business cycles (we're in a peak now), NY is building less housing than they have build in ~100 years, and Manhattan is at its lowest density since the 1890s. The current period is only a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when basically no new housing was constructed.

m_ke 7y ago
Manhattan has a glut of luxury condos that are sitting vacant but Williamsburg, Bushwick, Greenpoint and LIC have seen a boom (https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-building-boom-pushes-new-york-city-outward-1540742400 https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-building-boom-pushes-new-york...) over the past few years. Commercial real estate has gone up a lot as well and has led to a ton of vacant retail space. My father had a carpentry shop in bushwick and just had his land lord triple their rent.
- shuckles 7y ago
  The right metric is new homes per capita by which NYC is about as bad San Francisco.
- tmh79 7y ago
  They have seen a "boom" relative to 2009-2012 when literally zero new housing was built, they have not seen a boom relative to 1900 - 2009, especially when accounting for business cycle. I understand that you are seeing what you perceive to be a lot of housing construction, but relative to historical trends and population/household size trends, there is very little housing construction happening in NYC.
  - m_ke 7y ago
    The "boom" is relative to all of 2000s. Look at the number of permits in 2015 [1], especially in the outer boroughs. My argument, as someone who grew up in Brooklyn and Queens, is that building new housing doesn't really drive the prices down. I have a lot of friends who had to move or shut down their small businesses because of the rising costs. [1](https://www.buildingcongress.com/advocacy-and-reports/reports-and-analysis/construction-outlook-update/NYC-residential-building-permits-surged-past-56000-in-2015-a-67-percent-increase-from-the-height-of-the-previous-building-boom.html https://www.buildingcongress.com/advocacy-and-reports/report...) [2](https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/dob-development-report.html https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/buildings/html/dob-development-r...)

formerchamp 7y ago

It doesn't help when there are insane regulations like dedicating double digit percentage of new units to be "affordable"/subsidized/section 8. Anyone with a full time minimum wage job would not qualify for "affordable" housing, you literally have to not work at all, it's such a scam.

zionic 7y ago
The entire idea is preposterous. The solution to affordable housing is oversupply of housing. Gov should incentivize new construction to reduce prices and let the market fix it.
- kelnos 7y ago
  The problem is that in most areas the government is primarily voted in by existing landowners, who don't want more housing, and don't care if lower-income renters are being forced out. The non-landowners are either not abundant enough, or only plan to live here for a short enough period of time that they don't bother to get involved in local politics.
  - vineyardmike 7y ago
    While this is the whole "NIMBY" thing... is that really a problem? No one complains that Americans can't vote in Britains elections, to set their laws. The whole point of voting is that the people who actively live there get to decide what happens to their city.
    - micmil 7y ago
      Yes, that's a problem. Nobody that bought a home on the vague notion that they HAVE to make money off of it when they sell it will ever vote to have a homeless shelter built across the road.
    - kelnos 7y ago
      I think the cause and effect is intertwined. Many of the people who now plan to only stay for a few years have that attitude because they feel disenfranchised and locked out of the planning process, while at the same time being priced out of the ability to put down roots.

jcims 7y ago

Is it housing cost or housing risk? Is one thing to put a million dollars into a home and sell it for $1.4m five years later. It’s another thing to owe s million on a place that’s now worth $400k.

phonebanshee 7y ago
That's not a thing in California. Loans on residential property are non-recourse, so if you owe more than it's worth you just stop paying.