3 ms·
Aren't you just doing the opposite? There are lots of data points that point to economic weakness. Ignoring those is just as silly as people ignoring the low un
by take_a_breath 7y ago
Aren't you just doing the opposite? There are lots of data points that point to economic weakness. Ignoring those is just as silly as people ignoring the low unemployment rate and high consumer confidence and saying everything is bad.
Among actual signs of weakness: low GDP growth, three rate cuts in 2019, an annual deficit higher than annual GDP growth, an S&P 500 earnings recession [1], a manufacturing recession [2], corporate debt at a record 47% of economy [3]. Even the fact that companies are using cash to buy-back stock instead of investing in growth shows that they don't believe there is enough economic demand to grow EPS through business expansion. Instead they re-purchase stock to reduce the denominator [4].
[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first-earnings-recession-in-three-years-2019-09-18 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-sp-500-is-in-its-first...
[2] https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-10-09/despite-trump-vow-manufacturing-in-recession https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-10-09/despite-tr...
[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/corporate-debt-nears-a-record-10-trillion-and-borrowing-binge-poses-new-risks/2019/11/29/1f86ba3e-114b-11ea-bf62-eadd5d11f559_story.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/corporate-de...
[4] https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-buybacks-outlook-estimated-record-amid-warren-sanders-political-criticism-2019-7-1028325693 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-buybac...