Or we could stagnate for 30 years, like Japan, and be forced to start drawing down before it has a chance to grow. You don't get a Mulligan. The current fetish

Or we could stagnate for 30 years, like Japan, and be forced to start drawing down before it has a chance to grow. You don't get a Mulligan. The current fetishisation of index funds - which I am entirely complicit in - seems to be based on drawing long-term extrapolations from a relatively short timescale in a relatively narrow market which didn't actually have funds that tracked indices, saw the rise of modern computing, and followed the most destructive wars in the Western world.