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I feel like the VC game is a massive bubble, similar to what happened in 2000. There are a ton of high profile startups with tons of VC capital that (from the o

I feel like the VC game is a massive bubble, similar to what happened in 2000. There are a ton of high profile startups with tons of VC capital that (from the outside) don't seem to have a clear path to profitability, yet they continue to grow regardless. Sometimes they find a niche before going bankrupt, sometimes they don't. It's a huge house of cards, and I'm worried what will happen in the next recession. I have business ideas, but I'm completely avoiding the VC game for now because I don't want to play the "build now, figure out profitability later" game where I'll likely be be forced into a profit model I don't agree with. My current approach is: 1. brainstorm solutions to problems I see 2. brainstorm a few profit models for the best ideas 3. Build an MVP, waiving the profit model initially (free trial and whatnot) to validate the idea 4. Implement profit model 5. Seek funding for growth 6. Exit The VC game seems to go 1, 5, 3, 2, 6 (step 4 comes when?), which seems super broken. It seems like VC funding -> IPO is the profit model for many projects, and the board (after IPO) is left to figure out how to sustain that.

Sevrene 7y ago
Sorry for the late reply. I think you're probably right about it being in a bubble, but I'm not sure we'll see it having a large crash that we typically associate with bubbles (some people would even say there is no bubble, if it does not pop). VCs are backed by large amounts of capital because most government policy has been to stimulate growth and the only way they know how is by giving away large loans at insanely cheap (in many cases even negative in real terms) interest. This means that VCs can actually lose out on money by not taking those loans and investing it, and that in turn drives a lot of speculatory investment, as well as inflates asset and stock prices which the government then uses to show how good it is. This is why you correctly spotted that step 4 is not a requirement for start ups anymore, because so long as you are big enough to be speculated on, you're good for funding. Whether that means it's broken really depends upon your definition of working, as a lot of people believe it's fine because all seems to be going great. This is the gambler's fallacy. It's all fine, until it isn't.

Sevrene 7y ago

Sorry for the late reply. I think you're probably right about it being in a bubble, but I'm not sure we'll see it having a large crash that we typically associate with bubbles (some people would even say there is no bubble, if it does not pop). VCs are backed by large amounts of capital because most government policy has been to stimulate growth and the only way they know how is by giving away large loans at insanely cheap (in many cases even negative in real terms) interest. This means that VCs can actually lose out on money by not taking those loans and investing it, and that in turn drives a lot of speculatory investment, as well as inflates asset and stock prices which the government then uses to show how good it is. This is why you correctly spotted that step 4 is not a requirement for start ups anymore, because so long as you are big enough to be speculated on, you're good for funding. Whether that means it's broken really depends upon your definition of working, as a lot of people believe it's fine because all seems to be going great. This is the gambler's fallacy. It's all fine, until it isn't.