Here’s an explanation in terms of folk probability. Ron Conway is playing poker, not roulette. He’s exposed to many opportunities and he chooses the ones he thi

Here’s an explanation in terms of folk probability. Ron Conway is playing poker, not roulette. He’s exposed to many opportunities and he chooses the ones he thinks are good bets. He earns far higher returns than he would if he picked randomly from the set of opportunities he is offered. The difference between him and the average angel investor is due to skill. No doubt he makes many bad bets but he is on the far, far right tail of investor returns for angel investments and has been for decades.