One thing that helps for me is to consider the bell curve profile, and the fact that a small shift greatly increases the area under the upper tail part of the c

One thing that helps for me is to consider the bell curve profile, and the fact that a small shift greatly increases the area under the upper tail part of the curve where the extreme weather events live, eg: https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/small-change-in-average-big-change-in-extremes https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/graphics/small-change... It does require some ability to grasp the concept of these nonlinear effects, so might be an uphill battle, depending on who you are talking to.