Investing: Great if you can get a position in a market that is open when the news is announced and thus be there for the fall....but it sucks if you have to get

Investing: Great if you can get a position in a market that is open when the news is announced and thus be there for the fall....but it sucks if you have to get in after the stock has declined and then you're hoping that the impact will take a couple days. I wouldn't try to play something like this. I've done highly leveraged, highly speculative investing successfully in the past. But even then, I was making bets on the order of weeks and months, not minutes. Do you think it is a sure thing that nokia will be down by %20 beyond the current price over the next year? IF you can make that argument mathematically, then it is soemthing worth investing in. (at least, this is the method I used. I can't say anything about nokia's valuation as I have never analyzed it. But I only invested in mathematically sure things that were consistent with the overall trend.) PS- When I say "sure thing" I mean "presuming no black swan events". I know there is no really sure thing. I also used leverage and hedged to limit my downside.