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> For fuel prices, I'm using today’s nationwide average gasoline price of $2.59 per gallon and $0.28 per kWh that Tesla charges at its Supercharger stations. O

by cevn 7y ago

> For fuel prices, I'm using today’s nationwide average gasoline price of $2.59 per gallon and $0.28 per kWh that Tesla charges at its Supercharger stations. OK, but you could use a more accurate number, the price people pay at their homes (Most rarely supercharge). A quick google shows thats 12c per hour in the US (I pay 8 cents.) Starting with "incorrect" (biased) assumptions will get you to the wrong place

neogodless 7y ago
> In that scenario, the cost of charging your Tesla Model 3 is therefore zero. In the Toyota Camry LE hybrid it’s $0.05 per mile. How long would it take you to make up for the Toyota’s $11,805 up-front price advantage? > For the average American who drives 1,000 miles per month, $0.05 per mile is $50 per month, or $600 per year. Divide $11,805 with $600 and you get almost 20 years. At least the article offers a generous alternative for comparison.
- rconti 7y ago
  The average american doesn't drive a toyota camry hybrid.
  - neogodless 7y ago
    I'm not sure of your point. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/#vwspc-section-5 https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-... The average American probably drives a fill-sized half-ton, pickup truck or small/medium SUV, or a relatively vanilla sedan from Toyota or Honda (including the Camry.)
- JshWright 7y ago
  Comparing the price of the cars and then talking about payback periods for "fueling" only makes sense if the _only_ difference between the cars is the source of power. That's obviously not the case, so the comparison is meaningless.
  - neogodless 7y ago
    It's meaningless depending on what you're trying to predict. In this case, no doubt they want to "predict" that the market for expensive electric cars will be limited. Of course the current owners of a Tesla are homeowners with garages that care more about having a fancy car than about the total cost of ownership. But at least in the sedan market, the top 4 sellers (in the U.S.) are the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and Honda Accord. More people want pickup trucks and SUVs, but for those that just prefer a sedan, they just want something that works and is affordable. Given all that, the total cost of ownership is a better tool for comparison, but obviously this article only looks at fuel costs and opportunity costs, without including other relevant variables.
- linsomniac 7y ago
  AFAICT, the 0.05/mile for the Camry doesn't include any costs other than the fuel. Teslas are insanely low maintenance, and while Toyotas tend to be low maintenance as well, there WILL be fluid changes and others (belts, plugs, etc) that the Tesla won't. Source: I have a Tesla and 2 Toyotas. :-)
  - neogodless 7y ago
    Yes. I'm not saying the articles conclusion (that fuel costs are why electric vehicle market share is growing slowly) is accurate. Just that an argument only about the cost of electricity isn't really sufficient to dispel the premise. Total cost of ownership is a lot more than purchase price and fuel cost. You and I agree on that.
- beatgammit 7y ago
  Sort of, but if they're going to drag in purchase price differential, they need to add in other total cost of ownership figures, like repairs, as well as list the feature delta. Most of that cost difference is in the features included in the car other than the EV portion, so it's disingenuous to use the full value in comparing fuel costs. I doubt people are buying a Tesla because they think it's cheaper long term, but fuel cost is part of that decision.
Konnstann 7y ago
He specifically addresses that point when he says most people live in apartments without dedicated superchargers. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is but it makes sense to me. I haven't seen very many apartment buildings with electric chargers in my area, if any.
- azernik 7y ago
  This is a ridiculous assumption. In the US, 63% of units (including rental units) include a garage or carport, and the majority of Americans live in a detached unit. That's an environmental problem of its own, but reduces the friction associated with this kind of last-meter infrastructure. EDIT: regarding apartment buildings, in California, if a lease includes a parking spot the landlord is legally required to allow the tenant to install a car charging station at their spot.
  - egdod 7y ago
    Garage, fine. How many car ports have electrical power?
    - azernik 7y ago
      Very often, usually for lighting.
      - linsomniac 7y ago
        ... and garage door openers. :-)
        azernik 7y ago
        A carport by definition doesn't have a door - it's a zero- to three-wall structure, usually adjacent to a house, that protects a car from rain and snow, but that's it. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carport
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
hateful 7y ago
My house gets on- and off-peak usage rates, so if I charge at night I get a better rate. My last bill had an on-peak rate of $.0886, but the off-peak rate was $.0327. So it's even better if I set the timer and only charge after a certain time.
- linsomniac 7y ago
  The Tesla lets you set a preferred charging time, so you can just plug in and it will charge off peak in the normal case. You can then override that if you need to charge now.
bagacrap 7y ago
Glad you read all the way to the third bullet point, but next time why not go for four?

by cevn 7y ago

neogodless 7y ago

> In that scenario, the cost of charging your Tesla Model 3 is therefore zero. In the Toyota Camry LE hybrid it’s $0.05 per mile. How long would it take you to make up for the Toyota’s $11,805 up-front price advantage? > For the average American who drives 1,000 miles per month, $0.05 per mile is $50 per month, or $600 per year. Divide $11,805 with $600 and you get almost 20 years. At least the article offers a generous alternative for comparison.

rconti 7y ago
The average american doesn't drive a toyota camry hybrid.
- neogodless 7y ago
  I'm not sure of your point. https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-by-model/#vwspc-section-5 https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-us-vehicle-sales-figures-... The average American probably drives a fill-sized half-ton, pickup truck or small/medium SUV, or a relatively vanilla sedan from Toyota or Honda (including the Camry.)
JshWright 7y ago
Comparing the price of the cars and then talking about payback periods for "fueling" only makes sense if the _only_ difference between the cars is the source of power. That's obviously not the case, so the comparison is meaningless.
- neogodless 7y ago
  It's meaningless depending on what you're trying to predict. In this case, no doubt they want to "predict" that the market for expensive electric cars will be limited. Of course the current owners of a Tesla are homeowners with garages that care more about having a fancy car than about the total cost of ownership. But at least in the sedan market, the top 4 sellers (in the U.S.) are the Toyota Camry, Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, and Honda Accord. More people want pickup trucks and SUVs, but for those that just prefer a sedan, they just want something that works and is affordable. Given all that, the total cost of ownership is a better tool for comparison, but obviously this article only looks at fuel costs and opportunity costs, without including other relevant variables.
linsomniac 7y ago
AFAICT, the 0.05/mile for the Camry doesn't include any costs other than the fuel. Teslas are insanely low maintenance, and while Toyotas tend to be low maintenance as well, there WILL be fluid changes and others (belts, plugs, etc) that the Tesla won't. Source: I have a Tesla and 2 Toyotas. :-)
- neogodless 7y ago
  Yes. I'm not saying the articles conclusion (that fuel costs are why electric vehicle market share is growing slowly) is accurate. Just that an argument only about the cost of electricity isn't really sufficient to dispel the premise. Total cost of ownership is a lot more than purchase price and fuel cost. You and I agree on that.
beatgammit 7y ago
Sort of, but if they're going to drag in purchase price differential, they need to add in other total cost of ownership figures, like repairs, as well as list the feature delta. Most of that cost difference is in the features included in the car other than the EV portion, so it's disingenuous to use the full value in comparing fuel costs. I doubt people are buying a Tesla because they think it's cheaper long term, but fuel cost is part of that decision.

Konnstann 7y ago

He specifically addresses that point when he says most people live in apartments without dedicated superchargers. I'm not sure how accurate that statement is but it makes sense to me. I haven't seen very many apartment buildings with electric chargers in my area, if any.

azernik 7y ago
This is a ridiculous assumption. In the US, 63% of units (including rental units) include a garage or carport, and the majority of Americans live in a detached unit. That's an environmental problem of its own, but reduces the friction associated with this kind of last-meter infrastructure. EDIT: regarding apartment buildings, in California, if a lease includes a parking spot the landlord is legally required to allow the tenant to install a car charging station at their spot.
- egdod 7y ago
  Garage, fine. How many car ports have electrical power?
  - azernik 7y ago
    Very often, usually for lighting.
    - linsomniac 7y ago
      ... and garage door openers. :-)
      - azernik 7y ago
        A carport by definition doesn't have a door - it's a zero- to three-wall structure, usually adjacent to a house, that protects a car from rain and snow, but that's it. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carport https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carport

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

hateful 7y ago

My house gets on- and off-peak usage rates, so if I charge at night I get a better rate. My last bill had an on-peak rate of $.0886, but the off-peak rate was $.0327. So it's even better if I set the timer and only charge after a certain time.

linsomniac 7y ago
The Tesla lets you set a preferred charging time, so you can just plug in and it will charge off peak in the normal case. You can then override that if you need to charge now.

bagacrap 7y ago

Glad you read all the way to the third bullet point, but next time why not go for four?