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> In the absence of calamity, fortuitous events, or brilliant new marketing strategies, sale counts are well-described by a Poisson process. That is, you can th
by fyp 7y ago
> In the absence of calamity, fortuitous events, or brilliant new marketing strategies, sale counts are well-described by a Poisson process. That is, you can think of there being an underlying average number of sales per day, and each day will be a realization of a Poisson distribution with that average.
Can someone give a bit more justification for this? It seems like the average rate shouldn't be constant and is heavily dependent on time/date.
If not, is there another justification for why sales mean should equal sales variance?
- gowld 7y ago> shouldn't be constant and is heavily dependent on time/date. A priori it is assumed that sales are independent of time. That's part of what Poisson distribution means -- a constant rate of rolls of a fixed weighted die. The assumption could be wrong. > justification for why sales mean should equal sales variance https://proofwiki.org/wiki/Variance_of_Poisson_Distribution https://proofwiki.org/wiki/Variance_of_Poisson_Distribution