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> If you think this federal reserve data is false, tell me more about why and how. I don't think it's false, I just don't think it reflects anything realistic.
by tenpies 7y ago
> If you think this federal reserve data is false, tell me more about why and how.
I don't think it's false, I just don't think it reflects anything realistic. My critique is with how they measure inflation, which is calculated in a way that ignores anything remotely volatile (meaning anything that has its prices adjusted to reflect reality) and was designed by someone who had incentives to make sure inflation was always low.
There is no need for me to re-write what is already written so I'll just link Investopedia's summary: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex....
Alternative measures of inflation put us anywhere from 6% to 8%, which seems to reflect reality much more than the official number. The concern about this is that high inflation is usually met with social unrest, political extremism, and declining standards of living. If inflation truly is understated, we should know because we'll begin seeing these things in the next couple of years. It will metaphorically be a case of bankers and policy makers saying "but inflation is below 2% - you guys should be happy" as a raging mob assembles a guillotine.
- eru 7y agoWhich alternative measures are you talking about? The GDP deflator is the most solid alternative measure of inflation I am aware of. It uses the whole GDP as the basket https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nNsE https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nNsE and is nowhere near 6%. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP_deflator https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP_deflator