4 ms·

I think the worst-case here is that political stagnation and populist anger continue to increase, leading to popular unrest and a military coup or other suspens

by scythe 7y ago

I think the worst-case here is that political stagnation and populist anger continue to increase, leading to popular unrest and a military coup or other suspension of democracy. Factional civil war seems very unlikely because urban vs rural is not a regional divide. But what's interesting is that political breakdown leading to a military coup wasn't what brought down the Roman Empire, but it was what brought down the Roman Republic! So maybe we're just entering the real imperial phase of our history.

k__ 7y ago
Ah, yes, the republic was before the empire, right.
socialdemocrat 7y ago
Now that is completely possible. More countries have had civil war over political disagreements than due to regional differences. Left-right kind of civil war has happened countless times through history. An example from more democratic countries would be Finland and Spain. I can very well see the start of a civil war after next election result if everything goes wrong. If say Trump loses and rejects that he lost the election while FOX and Friends pump up right wing voters and say the election was stolen from them and that people need to take up arms to protect their rights and prevent the deep state from stealing the election from them, then you may very well see a bloody civil war unfold. Nobody with any force on the right is fighting to calm people down. Right wing voters can be whipped into a frenzy and go berserk. Remember these are the very same people who believe Guns are for protecting their freedom. If they feel wronged their logical conclusion would be to grab their guns and start fighting.
leetcrew 7y ago
it's part of what brought down the western empire. commanders of armies sent to secure the borders would often march back and try to secure the throne. this is what a lot of the third century crisis was.

by scythe 7y ago

k__ 7y ago

Ah, yes, the republic was before the empire, right.

socialdemocrat 7y ago

Now that is completely possible. More countries have had civil war over political disagreements than due to regional differences. Left-right kind of civil war has happened countless times through history. An example from more democratic countries would be Finland and Spain. I can very well see the start of a civil war after next election result if everything goes wrong. If say Trump loses and rejects that he lost the election while FOX and Friends pump up right wing voters and say the election was stolen from them and that people need to take up arms to protect their rights and prevent the deep state from stealing the election from them, then you may very well see a bloody civil war unfold. Nobody with any force on the right is fighting to calm people down. Right wing voters can be whipped into a frenzy and go berserk. Remember these are the very same people who believe Guns are for protecting their freedom. If they feel wronged their logical conclusion would be to grab their guns and start fighting.

leetcrew 7y ago

it's part of what brought down the western empire. commanders of armies sent to secure the borders would often march back and try to secure the throne. this is what a lot of the third century crisis was.