3 ms·
> Around 1960 some people seriously claimed that within about 5 years there would be no more professional programmers because with this new language, everyone c
by zokier 7y ago
> Around 1960 some people seriously claimed that within about 5 years there would be no more professional programmers because with this new language, everyone could write the software they need themselves, since it was so easy to use.
Of course that prediction seems quaint now, but I posit that the prediction failed because they greatly underestimated the increase in demand of software as much as overestimated the expressiveness/productivity increase of COBOL (and later systems).
Heck, considering what a professional programmers job might have been like in the 50s, its not far fetched at all that such profession indeed has disappeared as modern programmers work at such a different level of abstraction
- brazzy 7y agoYes, given that back then people were typically working in assembler (with frequently changing platforms, to boot) and writing relatively simple data processing applications, the claim is somewhat understandable. But I think the main thing it failed to take into account is more how hard it is to translate business requirements into complete and unambiguous instructions.
- goatlover 7y agoThe even bigger thing is how better tools and abstraction create more demand for code, as more can be done. The entire history of computers has seen software demand increase over time.
- ksdale 7y agoThis reminds me of the Jevons paradox from economics. The story is that when steam engines became way more efficient, the demand for coal exploded. Even though each engine used much less energy, the total amount of energy consumed went through the roof.