Ooh, good question. (How big a market is currently is a matter of simple research, so I’m mostly interested in trying to guess about how a market will change.)

Ooh, good question. (How big a market is currently is a matter of simple research, so I’m mostly interested in trying to guess about how a market will change.) I think the way most investors do it is probably by maintaining a “story” about how the world will change that most people haven’t realized, and then matching that story up with ideas they hear. I’m not sure if there is a more robust or rational approach that actually works. The ideal investment plan would evaluate each idea/“potential market” on the expected value of market size, averaging various plausible scenarios according to their probabilities. But I don’t think many people can run a process like that without injecting a ton of priors about how the world will evolve... it all seems to devolve into an argument over which macro trends matter in the next 10 years or so.