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>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventua

>From my seat, that really remains to be seen. The existing companies don't seem to have found a way to compete with Tesla's EVs yet. They may get there eventually, but Tesla has it now. This somewhat reminds me of BlackBerry. They're basically the only game in town right now, and thus maintain a market advantage. However as larger companies shift to EV's as the technology matures how will Tesla be able to maintain its advantage and market valuation? Should the VW group, Toyota, or the Renault–Nissan–Mitsubishi Alliance decide to go all in on EV's will they be able to produce something akin to the iPhone to Tesla's BlackBerry?

aerovistae 7y ago
No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Guess what never happened.
- woofcat 7y ago
  >You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Not really. BlackBerry basically invented the smartphone, and introduced it to market success. We're talking pre-2008 BlackBerry is Tesla today. Tesla basically invented the EV, and is leading the market.
  - AnthonyMouse 7y ago
    I think where the analogy breaks is that Tesla didn't invent cars. Electric cars are new as a viable thing and have some advantages and disadvantages, but they're not a difference in kind, like a Blackberry/smartphone was over a thing that only makes phone calls. They compete directly with the old thing on the traditional terms, like performance and fuel cost. People are going to start preferring electric cars. They're faster and more efficient and battery improvements are likely to continue to reduce their disadvantages (up front cost and range). The traditional carmakers could make a strong commitment to electric cars right now, the question is will they? It's like asking Microsoft to embrace Linux in 1999. They could do it, and they might be better off if they did, but you can certainly see why they might drag their feet in a way that makes them worse off in the long run. They also have a huge problem with dealer incentives, because the dealers make most of their money on service and electric vehicles need less service, but the dealers are the ones choosing which cars to promote to anybody who walks in the door. It's no use to make a great electric car if any time somebody comes in looking to buy it, the dealer convinces them not to.
- iamaelephant 7y ago
  This comment comes across as wishful thinking and not thoughtful analysis.
  - aerovistae 7y ago
    People have been saying this same shit for a decade and yet here we are in 2020 and still "the legacy manufacturers will be catching up ANY DAY NOW, just need a LITTLE more time."
- ilikehurdles 7y ago
  VW group is going very heavily for mainstream EVs, seriously ramping up production, and the models don't look like the toy concept EVs of yore either. Maybe Audi and BMW have to think about what it means to make a competitive EV since their price-points are similar to Tesla's, but VW proper will be pushing EVs at the ~$30k MSRP range. They don't need to be more advanced than a Tesla at that price because there is no significant market of people cross-shopping $50k Teslas and $30k VWs. What these manufacturer's need to do is release electric cars with reasonable ranges, near existing price-points, that look and feel "German Car".
  - tigershark 7y ago
    Volkswagen ID.3 will be ~30k€ not 30k$, so about 33k$. Tesla model 3 is ~40k$ not 50k$. So it’s only 7k$ difference, not 20k$ as you wrongly assume.
    - Tempest1981 7y ago
      Still not coming to the US? https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/# https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-elect...
      - clouddrover 7y ago
        The ID.3 isn't but the bigger ID.4 will be: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-id4-electric-suv/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-id4-electric-s... It's supposed to get its official reveal in the next month or so.
        Tempest1981 7y ago
        I read that VW will start EV production in Tennessee in 2022. Seems like a long way off.
        clouddrover 7y ago
- mbbutler 7y ago
  Chevy and Hyundai already offer EVs with better range than the Model 3 SR+ at a lower cost.
  - bananabreakfast 7y ago
    Too bad no one cares about them and no one is buying them.
    - mbbutler 7y ago
      Yeah, it's a shame. I have a Bolt and absolutely love it.
- clouddrover 7y ago
  > These ancient companies will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Volkswagen are doing exactly that. They have many BEVs models coming out this year across their multiple car brands (such as VW, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Porsche). The Porsche Taycan is the only 800 volt EV on the market today. The Volkswagen ID.3 has similar range to a Model 3 at a lower price point. Even Audi's headlights are interesting. They're essentially projectors fast enough to run animations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2ara0My_Yg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2ara0My_Yg
ajross 7y ago
Tellingly, though, Blackberry failed not in the face of emerging competition from the existing establishment (e.g. Nokia and Palm) but because it got one-upped by another, even more innovative platform by a newcomer to the mobile market. I mean, I agree that at some point Tesla is going to get beaten. But to argue that GM or Toyota will do it seems... less likely.
- woofcat 7y ago
  In a sense yes, the mobile phone market shifted from being phones to mobile computers, and a computer company dethroned them. For all I know as cars become more integrated with computers we'll see an iCar, or a Google Car which will shake up the industry. Currently major car brands view tech companies as their competition in the long run.
jsight 7y ago
I think that you are close, but its more like Tesla is Apple now and the rest of the industry is trying to be Android. Where Tesla dominates the US with a proprietary charging network, others are slowing inching (or millimetering?) forward with open charge networks and a variety of new designs. Eventually they are bound to catch up on volume. But by then, might Tesla have a significant desirability advantage? And in the auto-market, desirability is an amazingly effective proxy for assessing margin advantages.
woodandsteel 7y ago
You're implying that the legacy manufactures could come up with some radically new sort of ev that would be as superior to Tesla cars as the iphone was to the BlackBerry. But the legacy manufacturers are already producing and designing ev's, and they are all inferior to Teslas.

aerovistae 7y ago

No! No, no, no. This will not happen. It's a total pipe dream. These ancient companies, so set in their ways, who have been incrementally making tiny adjustments to their cars for decades, will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Tesla isn't the blackberry here, the other car companies are! You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Guess what never happened.

woofcat 7y ago
>You're basically the guy in 2008 saying "sure Apple has an advantage now, but what will they do when Blackberry catches up and shifts to touchscreen based phones?" Not really. BlackBerry basically invented the smartphone, and introduced it to market success. We're talking pre-2008 BlackBerry is Tesla today. Tesla basically invented the EV, and is leading the market.
- AnthonyMouse 7y ago
  I think where the analogy breaks is that Tesla didn't invent cars. Electric cars are new as a viable thing and have some advantages and disadvantages, but they're not a difference in kind, like a Blackberry/smartphone was over a thing that only makes phone calls. They compete directly with the old thing on the traditional terms, like performance and fuel cost. People are going to start preferring electric cars. They're faster and more efficient and battery improvements are likely to continue to reduce their disadvantages (up front cost and range). The traditional carmakers could make a strong commitment to electric cars right now, the question is will they? It's like asking Microsoft to embrace Linux in 1999. They could do it, and they might be better off if they did, but you can certainly see why they might drag their feet in a way that makes them worse off in the long run. They also have a huge problem with dealer incentives, because the dealers make most of their money on service and electric vehicles need less service, but the dealers are the ones choosing which cars to promote to anybody who walks in the door. It's no use to make a great electric car if any time somebody comes in looking to buy it, the dealer convinces them not to.
iamaelephant 7y ago
This comment comes across as wishful thinking and not thoughtful analysis.
- aerovistae 7y ago
  People have been saying this same shit for a decade and yet here we are in 2020 and still "the legacy manufacturers will be catching up ANY DAY NOW, just need a LITTLE more time."
ilikehurdles 7y ago
VW group is going very heavily for mainstream EVs, seriously ramping up production, and the models don't look like the toy concept EVs of yore either. Maybe Audi and BMW have to think about what it means to make a competitive EV since their price-points are similar to Tesla's, but VW proper will be pushing EVs at the ~$30k MSRP range. They don't need to be more advanced than a Tesla at that price because there is no significant market of people cross-shopping $50k Teslas and $30k VWs. What these manufacturer's need to do is release electric cars with reasonable ranges, near existing price-points, that look and feel "German Car".
- tigershark 7y ago
  Volkswagen ID.3 will be ~30k€ not 30k$, so about 33k$. Tesla model 3 is ~40k$ not 50k$. So it’s only 7k$ difference, not 20k$ as you wrongly assume.
  - Tempest1981 7y ago
    Still not coming to the US? https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-electric-car-us-demand-low/# https://ww.electrek.co/2019/12/13/vw-not-launching-id3-elect...
    - clouddrover 7y ago
      The ID.3 isn't but the bigger ID.4 will be: https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-id4-electric-suv/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/volkswagen-id4-electric-s... It's supposed to get its official reveal in the next month or so.
      - Tempest1981 7y ago
        I read that VW will start EV production in Tennessee in 2022. Seems like a long way off.
        clouddrover 7y ago
mbbutler 7y ago
Chevy and Hyundai already offer EVs with better range than the Model 3 SR+ at a lower cost.
- bananabreakfast 7y ago
  Too bad no one cares about them and no one is buying them.
  - mbbutler 7y ago
    Yeah, it's a shame. I have a Bolt and absolutely love it.
clouddrover 7y ago
> These ancient companies will never "suddenly leap forward" to come out with something more advanced and more appealing than a Tesla. Volkswagen are doing exactly that. They have many BEVs models coming out this year across their multiple car brands (such as VW, Audi, SEAT, Skoda, Porsche). The Porsche Taycan is the only 800 volt EV on the market today. The Volkswagen ID.3 has similar range to a Model 3 at a lower price point. Even Audi's headlights are interesting. They're essentially projectors fast enough to run animations: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2ara0My_Yg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2ara0My_Yg

ajross 7y ago

Tellingly, though, Blackberry failed not in the face of emerging competition from the existing establishment (e.g. Nokia and Palm) but because it got one-upped by another, even more innovative platform by a newcomer to the mobile market. I mean, I agree that at some point Tesla is going to get beaten. But to argue that GM or Toyota will do it seems... less likely.

woofcat 7y ago
In a sense yes, the mobile phone market shifted from being phones to mobile computers, and a computer company dethroned them. For all I know as cars become more integrated with computers we'll see an iCar, or a Google Car which will shake up the industry. Currently major car brands view tech companies as their competition in the long run.

jsight 7y ago

I think that you are close, but its more like Tesla is Apple now and the rest of the industry is trying to be Android. Where Tesla dominates the US with a proprietary charging network, others are slowing inching (or millimetering?) forward with open charge networks and a variety of new designs. Eventually they are bound to catch up on volume. But by then, might Tesla have a significant desirability advantage? And in the auto-market, desirability is an amazingly effective proxy for assessing margin advantages.

woodandsteel 7y ago

You're implying that the legacy manufactures could come up with some radically new sort of ev that would be as superior to Tesla cars as the iphone was to the BlackBerry. But the legacy manufacturers are already producing and designing ev's, and they are all inferior to Teslas.