And I definitely know that Twitter ain't worth 10 billion dollars. That's a lot like saying "I know x startup will fail." You are probably right considering va

And I definitely know that Twitter ain't worth 10 billion dollars. That's a lot like saying "I know x startup will fail." You are probably right considering vast majority of startups shooting for the stars fail. But you also don't get very many points for predicting what's gonna fail. And so it is better to invest in 30 companies where 29 turn out to be absolute crap and one turns out to be Google versus investing in 30 average companies that have average returns or NOT investing in any company at all. Of course you can invest in one solid company and have that be google. But I don't know very many people that have done that.