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But who cares about P(PhD|jobless)? P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. But P(PhD|jobless) is only important i
by madcaptenor 16y ago
But who cares about P(PhD|jobless)? P(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. But P(PhD|jobless) is only important if you're a jobless PhD and you want to know what your chances of finding someone else who's survived grad school in the unemployment line. I wouldn't know how to interpret "1 out of every n jobless people has a PhD"; the first thing I'd ask is "what proportion of all people have a PhD", and then essentially run things through a crude mental version of Bayes' theorem.
(I have a PhD. In probability.)
- btilly 16y agoP(jobless|PhD) is important; it's a measure of how much job security a PhD leads to. No, it is a measure of how much job security a PhD is correlated with. I believe that the qualities that lead to one being able to complete a PhD are positively correlated with being able to get and hold a job. Therefore you need to restrict to just those people you think could get a PhD to figure out how much the PhD helps or hurts you.
- madcaptenor 16y agoI stand corrected. This is exactly what I'd tell my students if they had made the mistake I made.
- hyperbovine 16y agoBut then you wouldn't get to use Bayes' theorem in a public setting.
- psyklic 16y agoDespite it's practicality, I for one enjoyed the statistic.