6 ms·

True story, three nights ago at a bar in Saigon: Friend of mine: Mubarak is sharp. That motherfucker has been hated for a long time, but is still in power... h

True story, three nights ago at a bar in Saigon: Friend of mine: Mubarak is sharp. That motherfucker has been hated for a long time, but is still in power... he'll weather this, he'll still be running the country next year. Me: I don't know dude, the city is literally on fire. Has any revolution ever hit this point and had the leader keep control? Him: They're rioting. It'll get settled out. Besides, Mubarak's got the military. Me: Does he? Really? Him: Well, if you think he'll be out of power, put your money where your mouth is. 100 bucks says, Mubarak is still in power at the end of this year. Me: I don't know dude, I guess I don't know as much about this as you do... Him: I don't know much. But I think he's got it. What do you say, 100 bucks? Me: Well, what's "in power"? Him: He's still got the title President on December 31st. Me: In Egypt, not in exile? Him: In Egypt. He's still president, and in Egypt. Me: And no foreign occupying army stabilizing - no U.N. peacekeepers or transition force. Him: That wouldn't happen, America has the securi -- okay, fine, yes, no foreign forces. So the wager is - Mubarak has the title of President on December 31st, is in Egypt, and there's no foreign troops occupying. Me: Okay, I'm going to go with history here. You can break riots earlier, but once they hit this point it's over... Him: We'll see. I want that hundred bucks in December. Me: I'm good for it. You're on. We shook on it. I'll take him out to a nice dinner with some of the money.

oconnor0 16y ago
If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win?
- lionhearted 16y ago
  > If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win? If he's got the title of President, there's no foreign troops stabilizing (that's the only way I could see Mubarak keeping power - if the U.N. sent peacekeepers or something), and he's in Egypt, then I suppose so yes.
  - fuzzythinker 16y ago
    You may have to hold on for the dinner treat til Dec'12 then.
mahmud 16y ago
Gaaah, Seb! The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now".
- lionhearted 16y ago
  > The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now". The differing analysis was actually more interesting to me than the wager - his was that Mubarak is resilient, ruthless, has weathered things in the past, and has the military. My thinking was that things had already progressed beyond the point where he could possibly stay in power... and the military is not so clearly on his side against the people, especially considering he likely won't live much longer. I thought comparing the two points of view was more interesting than the bet itself.
  - mahmud 16y ago
    Sorry, but your friend lived under a rock and had no clue how the events on the ground were unfolding. I would make it a habit to bet the guy from now on. Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. They refused to get violent, they refused to split into factions, and they refused to disclose any unified position that he could negotiate with, other than "get out".
    - lionhearted 16y ago
      > Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. Huh, that's a fascinating analysis, especially the point about refusing to give a position to negotiate with. Also, I laughed about the betting point. Sidenote: I live on the road, and my next travel plans after Asia were going to be Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and Greece... I'm thinking those don't look as appealing as when I set them in late 2009...
      - iuguy 16y ago
        Here's a better alternate plan for you: Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, Morocco. They're all fine as long as you use common sense.
btilly 16y ago
Point for your friend. Long before this happened a US government cable analyzed Egypt and said that the military would do little to protect Mubarak as long as their economic interests were not threatened. Right now the military is facing major disruption to its economic interests as long as the protests continue. But if they transition to a new government, they can reduce the disruption. Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy. Why? Well when the Camp David accords brought about peace, Egypt no longer needed such a big military. But they didn't want to make all of those men go into the private sector at once, that could destabilize the country. So they found jobs for them. For example lots of wonderful beaches no longer needed to be filled with military bases to repel a possible Israeli attack, so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran. So Mubarak is out. He can't protect the military's commercial interests. Whoever and whatever replaces him is fine as long as the military interests are maintained. The changes can be extensive, so long as the country goes back to work and the military is free to return to making money.
- eru 16y ago
  > Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy. Reminds me of China.
- nir 16y ago
  >so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran. Any sources for this? The Sinai peninsula did not have many military bases (certainly not Egyptian ones) on the coastline. Are you referring to another area?
  - kanwisher 16y ago
    There are military checkpoints like every few kilometers on the sinai peninsula. Quite disruptive to have to get questioned 30+ times in a 7 hour journey from Sharm El' Sheik to Cairo
jrwoodruff 16y ago
So what happens if he keeps the title but relinquishes executive power, as the 2:05 post indicates? Tie?
gojomo 16y ago
The idea of 'Hosni Mubarak' might still be in power. It'll just be named 'Omar Suleiman'.
jganetsk 16y ago
Mubarak is not resigning. Looks like your friend is still in this game.
tlrobinson 16y ago
Looks like you might have spoken too soon: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2203697 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2203697

oconnor0 16y ago

If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win?

lionhearted 16y ago
> If Mubarak returns to power before the end of the year does your friend win? If he's got the title of President, there's no foreign troops stabilizing (that's the only way I could see Mubarak keeping power - if the U.N. sent peacekeepers or something), and he's in Egypt, then I suppose so yes.
- fuzzythinker 16y ago
  You may have to hold on for the dinner treat til Dec'12 then.

mahmud 16y ago

Gaaah, Seb! The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now".

lionhearted 16y ago
> The whole dialogue can be summarized as "someone bet me he will still be in power a year from now". The differing analysis was actually more interesting to me than the wager - his was that Mubarak is resilient, ruthless, has weathered things in the past, and has the military. My thinking was that things had already progressed beyond the point where he could possibly stay in power... and the military is not so clearly on his side against the people, especially considering he likely won't live much longer. I thought comparing the two points of view was more interesting than the bet itself.
- mahmud 16y ago
  Sorry, but your friend lived under a rock and had no clue how the events on the ground were unfolding. I would make it a habit to bet the guy from now on. Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. They refused to get violent, they refused to split into factions, and they refused to disclose any unified position that he could negotiate with, other than "get out".
  - lionhearted 16y ago
    > Mubarak was destined to leave if for one reason: the opposition refused to bite the various baits thrown at them. Huh, that's a fascinating analysis, especially the point about refusing to give a position to negotiate with. Also, I laughed about the betting point. Sidenote: I live on the road, and my next travel plans after Asia were going to be Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, and Greece... I'm thinking those don't look as appealing as when I set them in late 2009...
    - iuguy 16y ago
      Here's a better alternate plan for you: Turkey, Greece, Italy, France, Spain, Morocco. They're all fine as long as you use common sense.

btilly 16y ago

Point for your friend. Long before this happened a US government cable analyzed Egypt and said that the military would do little to protect Mubarak as long as their economic interests were not threatened. Right now the military is facing major disruption to its economic interests as long as the protests continue. But if they transition to a new government, they can reduce the disruption. Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy. Why? Well when the Camp David accords brought about peace, Egypt no longer needed such a big military. But they didn't want to make all of those men go into the private sector at once, that could destabilize the country. So they found jobs for them. For example lots of wonderful beaches no longer needed to be filled with military bases to repel a possible Israeli attack, so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran. So Mubarak is out. He can't protect the military's commercial interests. Whoever and whatever replaces him is fine as long as the military interests are maintained. The changes can be extensive, so long as the country goes back to work and the military is free to return to making money.

eru 16y ago
> Now I can just see you saying, Economic interests? What economic interests. They are a military! Which is entirely reasonable, but wrong. The Egyptian military is somewhere between 1/3 to 1/2 of Egypt's economy. Reminds me of China.
nir 16y ago
>so the military removed the bases, and built tourist resorts instead. Which they ran. Any sources for this? The Sinai peninsula did not have many military bases (certainly not Egyptian ones) on the coastline. Are you referring to another area?
- kanwisher 16y ago
  There are military checkpoints like every few kilometers on the sinai peninsula. Quite disruptive to have to get questioned 30+ times in a 7 hour journey from Sharm El' Sheik to Cairo

jrwoodruff 16y ago

So what happens if he keeps the title but relinquishes executive power, as the 2:05 post indicates? Tie?

gojomo 16y ago

The idea of 'Hosni Mubarak' might still be in power. It'll just be named 'Omar Suleiman'.

jganetsk 16y ago

Mubarak is not resigning. Looks like your friend is still in this game.

tlrobinson 16y ago

Looks like you might have spoken too soon: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2203697 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2203697