4 ms·
I think his proposition is roughly, that a singular technology grows on an S-curve, but as each one technology slows another picks up the baton and runs with it
by JulianMorrison 16y ago
I think his proposition is roughly, that a singular technology grows on an S-curve, but as each one technology slows another picks up the baton and runs with it, and the totality (sum of S-curves) has historically looked exponential, and promises to continue.
- SimonPStevens 16y agoAhh, now that is an interesting angle, but that would suggest that the rate of introduction of new technologies is linear and that every new technology must have a period of exponential growth initially. (Or I suppose... That the rate of introduction of technologies with initially exponential growth rates is linear. You could ignore those without exponential growth rate provide that a constant number did.)
- JulianMorrison 16y agoI think basically at any one time there are a lot of competing new-born technologies, and it's only in retrospect that we can see which of them will go exponential through a feedback cycle of improvement and growing adoption. It's not so much that technology always goes exponential. It's that in retrospect, we notice the ones that did.