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It was glaringly obvious from the first report considering the ongoing missile strike.
by avocado4 7y ago
It was glaringly obvious from the first report considering the ongoing missile strike.
- eloff 7y agoYes, it was. Planes are very reliable. What's the odds there's a crash in Iran hours after they attach the US and are on high alert for a counter attack? It's a safe bet.
- c0nducktr 7y agoI'd assume the odds of a country shooting down an aircraft that took off from their own airport ought to be pretty low as well.
- bigiain 7y agoSure. Sydney Airport on a pleasant summer afternoon? Odds so close to zero that it doesn't matter. Tehran Airport at what could be the start of a war with the US? If I were an insurer I'd be pricing that risk _way_ differently.
- idiocratic 7y agoMost major airlines suspended flights to and from Teheran on that day, so the odds were a bit higher than normal.
- gumby 7y agoNot a “safe bet.” Reasonable assumption yes but no more. An American Airlines planet crashed only a few weeks after the September 01 attacks, but it was just an actual accident.
- eloff 7y agoNo, this is not chance of a crash anywhere, it's that a crash happens in Iran where there just aren't that many flights. Even more on this day when many airlines suspended flights. The math here is probability of air crash times number of flights in Iran, it's such a low number that one would be silly to think it's a coincidence.