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Causation between years of consecutive drought and record-breaking temperatures leading to record-breaking wildfires is not hard to establish. Trying to deny th
by missosoup 7y ago
Causation between years of consecutive drought and record-breaking temperatures leading to record-breaking wildfires is not hard to establish. Trying to deny that would require some impressive mental gymnastics.
Causation between human activity and climate change resulting in that temperature anomaly, is fundamentally hard. Especially in a field like climate science where every model carries a big bundle of assumptions some of which are just educated guesses.
But the models for anthropogenic climate change have been pretty bang on at predicting the temperature anomaly that we're seeing today. That doesn't formally prove causation but it's certainly enough evidence that we need to start acting to mitigate climate change now, there's no more 'complicated analysis' needed. At this point it's a bit like arguing over whether hitting the iceberg is really what's making the titanic sink, while standing on the submerging deck.
- datashow 7y agoYour first paragraph didn't mention climate change. Is it now established that record breaking temperatures are always caused by climate change? OK. I got downvoted on this. What is wrong here?
- missosoup 7y agoRecord breaking temperatures and an increasing global mean temperature anomaly is by definition climate change. What you're asking is the equivalent of 'is it now established that the deck of the titanic increasingly submerging underwater is caused by it sinking?'.
- datashow 7y agoSorry, I meant anthropogenic climate change. I didn't know that's the confusion.