6 ms·

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn. Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and

I'm going to -4 on this, but: it absolutely still remains to be seen whether or not tablets are worth a damn. Seriously, people play shitty games on them, and I guess read ebooks (though I see vastly more Kindles on the subway, than iPads). I do not, at all see a compelling product yet, I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. Sure there's great lip service to how revolutionary this concept is, but that's just talk. I'm not saying that the iPad isn't the second coming of Christ. I am saying that it's not proven itself to be that just quite yet. I don't think the PC is (even close) to dead.

far33d 16y ago
>I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. 7.3m iPads sold so far hardly seems like just early adopters.
- halostatue 16y ago
  7.3m is only the holiday quarter (FQ1'11 for Apple). The YTD was about 16m. I'd say that first year sales will probably bust 20m.
dstein 16y ago
Technology-wise I see absolutely nothing preventing Apple from being able to port and merge OSX and iOS down the road. And if Nvidia's ARM chips work out it looks like tablets might just be able to replace laptops. Imagine a MacBook Air without the keyboard and running both iOS and OSX.
zachallaun 16y ago
You're likely right in that tablets aren't about to kill PCs, but suggesting that tablets remain a simple "trendy gadget" seems a bit silly, especially considering Apple's Q1 reports [1]. Perhaps the iPad isn't to your taste, but it was to 7 million others. (And some 16 million overall.) One could argue that Apple does, in fact, have the largest consumer base of early adopters and trend followers of any company, but when you fan base grows larger than many other markets, you kind of have to call it main-stream. I'm pretty sure that the iPad isn't the second coming of Christ. I'm comfortable saying that. But it's something other than a trend at this point. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/18/apple-q1-2011/ http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/18/apple-q1-2011/
- nooneelse 16y ago
  If you are going to go calling tablets of any kind "main-stream", then I'm afraid you are devaluing that term to the point that it is meaningless. TVs are mainstream. Cars are mainstream. Computers overall are mainstream, though it is still easy to find homes in which "the computer" is put somewhere "out of the way" and gets maybe an hour of interaction a month. Tablets are not mainstream.
  - pohl 16y ago
    I think you're confusing "mainstream" with "ubiquitous".
    - nooneelse 16y ago
      No, I'm really not. That would be one extreme, sure. However reducing the meaning of the term "mainstream" by saying it applies to things as rare as tablets are today is to go to the other extreme.
gregpilling 16y ago
I have noticed that a surprising number of personal acquaintances that have no computer skills, have iPads. The iPad lets them surf the net, read books, email and run some games. They don't have to think about how to use it, it has great battery life, it does the basics that they want and it is fun. One good friend of mine (former business partner) who is almost -intentionally- computer illiterate goes everywhere with his iPad. He loves it. His use is email, basic web surfing and taking notes about what he wants his employees to do. He runs a notepad for each one and keeps track of tasks he has assigned and how they accomplished it. There are way better project management tools out there, but the point is that he, a techno-peasant, is making his iPad do it. I think a large percentage of the iPad buyers were not techsavvy and the non-threatening aspect of the device is the appeal.
- candeira 16y ago
  How does he manage without a Mac to use as a "dock" for the iPad? Sincere question, I am a linux user and have only seen an iPad a couple of times, but I understand you need to dock it via iTunes in order to do certain stuff with it.
  - fierarul 16y ago
    There are few times when you need to connect to iTunes: * after the purchase (to "activate" it) -- which the store will do for you * if you want to update the OS * if you want to back it up * if you want to copy music/photos/videos/app data from your computer to the iPad. So, if you don't update the OS and you activated it at the store you'll just use it forever with the existing OS without ever touching a computer. You get a power plug the charges it directly from the socket (faster than USB anyhow) so you are all set.
    - jasonkester 16y ago
      And when it randomly crashes hard, leaving you looking at the dreaded "Connect to iTunes" screen. It somehow knows to do this at the moment you're furthest from being able to find a computer with iTunes. My iPod Touch did it when I was on the Pacific coast of Colombia for a month (note the complete absence of roads and towns along said coast). Getting to a place where I could listen to music again involved an overnight trip on a cargo boat through pirate-infested waters. But I suspect that was an edge case that Apple didn't have in mind when they designed that feature.
larrywright 16y ago
This is all anecdotal, but I know a number of people who bought their parents iPads for Christmas. In all those cases, their parents haven't touched their home computer since they got the iPad. The iPad, along with its competitors, are all the computer a good segment of the population needs.
- toddmorey 16y ago
  I love Steve Jobs' analogy here. He essentially said that desktop computers will stay around, but they'll be the trucks of a car-dominated industry. My parents (and most consumers) never do heavy work on their computers. What they've always needed--and what these new tablets are finally delivering--is a fast, dependable car that runs a long time between refueling.
- oozcitak 16y ago
  So true. My father-in-law needs a computer to check his email and FaceBook only. That's all he does. Even the iPad is too much for him.
toddmorey 16y ago
But think of what the tablet means: Small, super-light, instant-on hardware with long battery life; paired with a lean OS and small, fast, and focused apps. You can see some of the tablet/phone learnings leaking into other form factors, like the new Macbook Air. Tablets and phones are just the two current form factors for this new era of always-on, always-at-your-side computing. That's the shift that MS and Intel seem to be struggling with.
arohner 16y ago
I use my iPad nearly every day. It's a better experience than my laptop (which I do use literally every day) in several areas: * reading in bed * reading long PDFs. This is my primary "work purpose". I read a lot of machine learning books and journal articles in PDF form. * quick checking of email, when you don't want to sit down for a while * looking up recipes while cooking * social media sharing: when friends are over, showing them a new video on youtube, etc
- zzleeper 16y ago
  Would you prefer reading the articles in paper or in the ipad? (I'm considering switching from paper to ipad) Thanks!
  - joeyo 16y ago
    I'm watching this space very, very closely (i.e. tablets specifically for reading PDFs of articles). There are a lot of options but none are quite perfect: * iPad Pros: - Color screen - Can zoom to exact size desired - Multi-touch - Papers.app (easy sync/organization for PDFs) Cons: - Not e-ink - Battery life - Not as light/thin as Kindle * Kindle 3 Pros: - E-ink - Amazing battery life Cons: - Zoom is limited to a couple sizes - No touch screen - No expansion card & limited to ~3GB internal - No real way to organize large number of PDFs * Kindle DX Pros: - Larger screen means PDFs are sized just about right without zoom - Same pros as K3 Cons: - Larger screen means it's a bit too awkward to hold with one hand - A bit on the heavy side - Same cons as K3 In my opinion the perfect PDF reader tablet would have a (color) e-ink display with multi-touch for scrolling and an arbitrary zoom. Kindle 4 maybe?
    - gamble 16y ago
      I'm not sure e-ink is an asset in a PDF reader. I use my iPad for a lot of technical papers and books. It's much faster than an e-ink display would be, and the page turning lag is still annoying. E-ink would be insufferable.
SoftwareMaven 16y ago
First, that is all the vast majority of people do on their desktop computers, yet devices like the iPad are far more convenient and prices about equivalently[1]. Second, that is invariably how a disruptive product is defined. 'I have yet to see a use for 2.5" hard drives beyond certain toy value because the storage space is so limited.' [1] Of course the iPad is less powerful for those dollars, but we are talking the vast majority of people who have never gotten their CPU beyond 10% utilization except when playing a movie with Flash.
scott_s 16y ago
Both of my parents recently retired. Now they're traveling a lot, and they wanted a portable device so they could send pictures, do email, and do basic web browsing. They didn't want a full laptop, and they didn't like the netbooks. So they bought an iPad. Two weeks later, they bought another one so they wouldn't have to share. My parents are early-adopters on nothing. They didn't get a car with air-conditioning until the late '90s. They didn't get a microwave until the mid '90s. That they jumped on the iPad when it came out, and then it won them over so immensely that they purchased another tells me something.
code_duck 16y ago
Apple, Amazon, etc. are selling these in numbers that rival game consoles. Based on the market's reaction, tablets are neither a fad nor unproven. They're the next major form factor, and I don't see them going away. This format is on the rise as traditional desktop hardware declines. Desks are not going out of style, so whether the PC is dead isn't necessarily the right question. People will continue to sit at desks and use computers. Microsoft's style of a desktop OS, though, could be on its way out. The hardware will be changing. Gamers, high performance computing (science, 3d, graphic design) and corporate networks will be the only ones who really need the 'tower' style computers. People who just want to read mail, browse the web, listen to music and use office software could basically take a tablet and plug in a monitor, mouse and keyboard for desktop use. Which OS they are going to use, how much flexibility it has and what sort of interface is the big question. The real contest will be between notebooks, tablets and mini-tablets (previously known as phones). To break it down even more, the issue is whether you have a keyboard, monitor and display ports built in. I'd love to have a tiny slab the size of a 13" Macbook with no monitor or keyboard (so, even smaller!) that I could use as a desktop. Oh, oops... I just described a Mac Mini. Looks like someone is ahead of me here.
saturdaysaint 16y ago
"I guess read ebooks" Ebooks outsell paperback and hardcover novels (not combined) on the internet's biggest bookseller - we can safely say that many people definitely read ebooks on tablets (assuming we're including Kindle). When reputable manufacturers bring mainstream tablets (i.e. Android pads that support the Market) to the $300-400 range, I believe that mainstream consumers will give them at least equal consideration with laptops in the same price range.

far33d 16y ago

>I see a trendy gadget that early adopters and trend followers have purchased. 7.3m iPads sold so far hardly seems like just early adopters.

halostatue 16y ago
7.3m is only the holiday quarter (FQ1'11 for Apple). The YTD was about 16m. I'd say that first year sales will probably bust 20m.

dstein 16y ago

Technology-wise I see absolutely nothing preventing Apple from being able to port and merge OSX and iOS down the road. And if Nvidia's ARM chips work out it looks like tablets might just be able to replace laptops. Imagine a MacBook Air without the keyboard and running both iOS and OSX.

zachallaun 16y ago

You're likely right in that tablets aren't about to kill PCs, but suggesting that tablets remain a simple "trendy gadget" seems a bit silly, especially considering Apple's Q1 reports [1]. Perhaps the iPad isn't to your taste, but it was to 7 million others. (And some 16 million overall.) One could argue that Apple does, in fact, have the largest consumer base of early adopters and trend followers of any company, but when you fan base grows larger than many other markets, you kind of have to call it main-stream. I'm pretty sure that the iPad isn't the second coming of Christ. I'm comfortable saying that. But it's something other than a trend at this point. [1] http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/18/apple-q1-2011/ http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/18/apple-q1-2011/

nooneelse 16y ago
If you are going to go calling tablets of any kind "main-stream", then I'm afraid you are devaluing that term to the point that it is meaningless. TVs are mainstream. Cars are mainstream. Computers overall are mainstream, though it is still easy to find homes in which "the computer" is put somewhere "out of the way" and gets maybe an hour of interaction a month. Tablets are not mainstream.
- pohl 16y ago
  I think you're confusing "mainstream" with "ubiquitous".
  - nooneelse 16y ago
    No, I'm really not. That would be one extreme, sure. However reducing the meaning of the term "mainstream" by saying it applies to things as rare as tablets are today is to go to the other extreme.

gregpilling 16y ago

I have noticed that a surprising number of personal acquaintances that have no computer skills, have iPads. The iPad lets them surf the net, read books, email and run some games. They don't have to think about how to use it, it has great battery life, it does the basics that they want and it is fun. One good friend of mine (former business partner) who is almost -intentionally- computer illiterate goes everywhere with his iPad. He loves it. His use is email, basic web surfing and taking notes about what he wants his employees to do. He runs a notepad for each one and keeps track of tasks he has assigned and how they accomplished it. There are way better project management tools out there, but the point is that he, a techno-peasant, is making his iPad do it. I think a large percentage of the iPad buyers were not techsavvy and the non-threatening aspect of the device is the appeal.

candeira 16y ago
How does he manage without a Mac to use as a "dock" for the iPad? Sincere question, I am a linux user and have only seen an iPad a couple of times, but I understand you need to dock it via iTunes in order to do certain stuff with it.
- fierarul 16y ago
  There are few times when you need to connect to iTunes: * after the purchase (to "activate" it) -- which the store will do for you * if you want to update the OS * if you want to back it up * if you want to copy music/photos/videos/app data from your computer to the iPad. So, if you don't update the OS and you activated it at the store you'll just use it forever with the existing OS without ever touching a computer. You get a power plug the charges it directly from the socket (faster than USB anyhow) so you are all set.
  - jasonkester 16y ago
    And when it randomly crashes hard, leaving you looking at the dreaded "Connect to iTunes" screen. It somehow knows to do this at the moment you're furthest from being able to find a computer with iTunes. My iPod Touch did it when I was on the Pacific coast of Colombia for a month (note the complete absence of roads and towns along said coast). Getting to a place where I could listen to music again involved an overnight trip on a cargo boat through pirate-infested waters. But I suspect that was an edge case that Apple didn't have in mind when they designed that feature.

larrywright 16y ago

This is all anecdotal, but I know a number of people who bought their parents iPads for Christmas. In all those cases, their parents haven't touched their home computer since they got the iPad. The iPad, along with its competitors, are all the computer a good segment of the population needs.

toddmorey 16y ago
I love Steve Jobs' analogy here. He essentially said that desktop computers will stay around, but they'll be the trucks of a car-dominated industry. My parents (and most consumers) never do heavy work on their computers. What they've always needed--and what these new tablets are finally delivering--is a fast, dependable car that runs a long time between refueling.
oozcitak 16y ago
So true. My father-in-law needs a computer to check his email and FaceBook only. That's all he does. Even the iPad is too much for him.

toddmorey 16y ago

But think of what the tablet means: Small, super-light, instant-on hardware with long battery life; paired with a lean OS and small, fast, and focused apps. You can see some of the tablet/phone learnings leaking into other form factors, like the new Macbook Air. Tablets and phones are just the two current form factors for this new era of always-on, always-at-your-side computing. That's the shift that MS and Intel seem to be struggling with.

arohner 16y ago

I use my iPad nearly every day. It's a better experience than my laptop (which I do use literally every day) in several areas: * reading in bed * reading long PDFs. This is my primary "work purpose". I read a lot of machine learning books and journal articles in PDF form. * quick checking of email, when you don't want to sit down for a while * looking up recipes while cooking * social media sharing: when friends are over, showing them a new video on youtube, etc

zzleeper 16y ago
Would you prefer reading the articles in paper or in the ipad? (I'm considering switching from paper to ipad) Thanks!
- joeyo 16y ago
  I'm watching this space very, very closely (i.e. tablets specifically for reading PDFs of articles). There are a lot of options but none are quite perfect: * iPad Pros: - Color screen - Can zoom to exact size desired - Multi-touch - Papers.app (easy sync/organization for PDFs) Cons: - Not e-ink - Battery life - Not as light/thin as Kindle * Kindle 3 Pros: - E-ink - Amazing battery life Cons: - Zoom is limited to a couple sizes - No touch screen - No expansion card & limited to ~3GB internal - No real way to organize large number of PDFs * Kindle DX Pros: - Larger screen means PDFs are sized just about right without zoom - Same pros as K3 Cons: - Larger screen means it's a bit too awkward to hold with one hand - A bit on the heavy side - Same cons as K3 In my opinion the perfect PDF reader tablet would have a (color) e-ink display with multi-touch for scrolling and an arbitrary zoom. Kindle 4 maybe?
  - gamble 16y ago
    I'm not sure e-ink is an asset in a PDF reader. I use my iPad for a lot of technical papers and books. It's much faster than an e-ink display would be, and the page turning lag is still annoying. E-ink would be insufferable.

SoftwareMaven 16y ago

First, that is all the vast majority of people do on their desktop computers, yet devices like the iPad are far more convenient and prices about equivalently[1]. Second, that is invariably how a disruptive product is defined. 'I have yet to see a use for 2.5" hard drives beyond certain toy value because the storage space is so limited.' [1] Of course the iPad is less powerful for those dollars, but we are talking the vast majority of people who have never gotten their CPU beyond 10% utilization except when playing a movie with Flash.

scott_s 16y ago

Both of my parents recently retired. Now they're traveling a lot, and they wanted a portable device so they could send pictures, do email, and do basic web browsing. They didn't want a full laptop, and they didn't like the netbooks. So they bought an iPad. Two weeks later, they bought another one so they wouldn't have to share. My parents are early-adopters on nothing. They didn't get a car with air-conditioning until the late '90s. They didn't get a microwave until the mid '90s. That they jumped on the iPad when it came out, and then it won them over so immensely that they purchased another tells me something.

code_duck 16y ago

Apple, Amazon, etc. are selling these in numbers that rival game consoles. Based on the market's reaction, tablets are neither a fad nor unproven. They're the next major form factor, and I don't see them going away. This format is on the rise as traditional desktop hardware declines. Desks are not going out of style, so whether the PC is dead isn't necessarily the right question. People will continue to sit at desks and use computers. Microsoft's style of a desktop OS, though, could be on its way out. The hardware will be changing. Gamers, high performance computing (science, 3d, graphic design) and corporate networks will be the only ones who really need the 'tower' style computers. People who just want to read mail, browse the web, listen to music and use office software could basically take a tablet and plug in a monitor, mouse and keyboard for desktop use. Which OS they are going to use, how much flexibility it has and what sort of interface is the big question. The real contest will be between notebooks, tablets and mini-tablets (previously known as phones). To break it down even more, the issue is whether you have a keyboard, monitor and display ports built in. I'd love to have a tiny slab the size of a 13" Macbook with no monitor or keyboard (so, even smaller!) that I could use as a desktop. Oh, oops... I just described a Mac Mini. Looks like someone is ahead of me here.

saturdaysaint 16y ago

"I guess read ebooks" Ebooks outsell paperback and hardcover novels (not combined) on the internet's biggest bookseller - we can safely say that many people definitely read ebooks on tablets (assuming we're including Kindle). When reputable manufacturers bring mainstream tablets (i.e. Android pads that support the Market) to the $300-400 range, I believe that mainstream consumers will give them at least equal consideration with laptops in the same price range.