5 ms·

I love Nokia's hardware, and have great respect for Microsoft's mobile team. But I'm not sure whether two dinosaurs together can run faster than one.

by DanI-S 16y ago

jacabado 16y ago
What is the track record of Microsoft in this kind of partnerships? Genuine question.
- Kylekramer 16y ago
  There is a reason the term "Wintel" was created. But I'd bet they can't pull it off again.
  - PakG1 16y ago
    I think the primary point would be that Wintel created a brand new market that hadn't yet really been developed yet. This time around (if it really happens), they're attacking a market that's pretty well developed. Still growing, but by no means at an infant stage.
    - philwelch 16y ago
      The distinction between "a brand new market that hasn't yet really been developed yet" and a market that's "well developed [but] still growing" can only be drawn in retrospect. Wintel was a decade late to personal computers, but it turns out a decade late was early enough.
      - PakG1 16y ago
        Fair enough. But I'd also say the key metric to analyze would be market penetration, percentage of total population buying the products. A lot more people have cell phones these days, both percentage-wise and gross numbers-wise, than people had personal computers back in the day.
- SwellJoe 16y ago
  You'd have to define "this kind of partnership". There are a number of mobile device makers building Windows phones. And there have been many co-development and branding deals over the years with Microsoft and PC makers. Many have been successful, many have failed. This, however, brings to mind the OS/2 deal, to me. If Microsoft culture is anything like it was in the 90s (which may not be the case), I would expect Microsoft to be a loyal partner with Nokia until such time as it is advantageous for them to go their own way, leaving Nokia holding the bag on a jointly developed "standard" platform that no one else wants. But, hey, I'm a cynical old nerd that's been involved in technology too long. The fact that Microsoft is a distant third, and losing ground daily, in the market might make a difference in how they treat their friends.
  - brudgers 16y ago
    The supposed Microsoft Nokia partnership isn't joint development of a phone OS. It looks more likely that Nokia could get out of the OS business altogether. I'm not sure that OS/2 is the best analogy. That wasn't a hardware company and software company teaming up. And it is unlikely that Nokia and Microsoft will evolve to become direct competitors in the way IBM and Microsoft did in the late 1980's and early 90's.
    - SwellJoe 16y ago
      "I'm not sure that OS/2 is the best analogy. That wasn't a hardware company and software company teaming up." I can't make any sense of this statement. IBM was the definitive hardware company at the time. Microsoft was the definitive software company at the time. What kind of companies do you think they were? "The supposed Microsoft Nokia partnership isn't joint development of a phone OS." As far as I can tell, we have no idea what sort of partnership they have in mind. But, I would expect Nokia to want a unique value, if they build Windows phones. And they have a huge development workforce, and have made numerous software acquisitions over the years. I'd be surprised if they don't plan to write some code, too.
      - philwelch 16y ago
madmath 16y ago
I could imagine Nokia becoming just a phone hardware manufacturer (many have pointed out that they have great hardware) like LG or HTC, and integrate software from companies such as Microsoft. If Samsung, LG, HTC do it, how hard can it be?
- brown 16y ago
  Nokia doesn't want that though. Nokia leadership views "just a phone hardware manufacturer" as a doomed fate in a commodity business, much like PC manufacturers have been a commodity for the past 10-20 years. Granted, Dell has done alright in that space, but overall that market still represents a commoditized business. Instead, Nokia wants to control the stack. That means having an integrated hardware + software solution. That creates real competitive advantage, which creates real profits. Apple has 25% margins. Dell has single digit margins.
  - JulianMorrison 16y ago
    No-one else can be Apple. It's questionable how long Apple can continue to be Apple. They got to own a stack because they started way ahead of the competition and haven't slacked or hit any technological walls. Upon the inevitable moment they lose momentum, the clones baying at their heels will eat them. This happened before, with classic Mac before the Jobs renaissance. As for Nokia, the market has reached a point of consolidation on standards comparable to the collapse of competing computer types in the early 90s from Atari, Commodore, Acorn, Amstrad etc to PC and Mac and nothing else. So they can either sell hardware or die.
    - PakG1 16y ago
      It's interesting to note that Apple was in a very similar position back in those days. They were dying, and made the decision to buy NeXT to change OS directions. The primary consideration was the OS, not Jobs; they were apparently very close to buying BeOS instead. Jobs being the catalyst for strategic change happened to be a pleasant surprise. He didn't even become the CEO of Apple again until much later. So, to be clear, even Apple wasn't Apple. Apple didn't reinvent itself. Apple bought NeXT to try to go a new direction; that is, innovation was acquired, not developed in-house. Looks like Nokia would be forced to do the same, judging from the mood around meego (or in this case, simply partner with an outsider).
asmithmd1 16y ago
or two drunks tied together will walk in a straight line
- StavrosK 16y ago
  You know, I bet two drunks tied together would be way more stable than one. Four legs are better than two.
  - philwelch 16y ago
    Two drunks tied together don't make four legs. They make two legs vs. two legs.
    - electromagnetic 16y ago
      I'm with you on that, I expect the probability of 'drunks tied together' falling down to increase following the square-cube law. I have a similar theory that the reason female washrooms always seem to have too few stalls is because their is a square-law going on. Ever notice how when your wife/girlfriend/friend goes to the washroom on their own they take roughly the same time as a guy, but when they go with their friend they easily take double the time it would for two guys, even assuming only one stall available. This is my reasoning on why buildings increase the number of washrooms rather than simply expanding on the one despite the extra washrooms usually being in inconvenient locations. I think somewhere some architect built a banquet hall with a 100 stall female washroom and at a function all the women knew each other, meaning they spent like two-weeks in the washroom and resorted to cannibalism.
      - philwelch 16y ago
        Female washrooms also have queueing inefficiencies compared to male washrooms. Women need a stall no matter what, men only need a stall in some cases and a urinal for other cases. And urinals have much higher throughput.
        16y ago

I love Nokia's hardware, and have great respect for Microsoft's mobile team. But I'm not sure whether two dinosaurs together can run faster than one.

by DanI-S 16y ago

I love Nokia's hardware, and have great respect for Microsoft's mobile team. But I'm not sure whether two dinosaurs together can run faster than one.

jacabado 16y ago

What is the track record of Microsoft in this kind of partnerships? Genuine question.

Kylekramer 16y ago
There is a reason the term "Wintel" was created. But I'd bet they can't pull it off again.
- PakG1 16y ago
  I think the primary point would be that Wintel created a brand new market that hadn't yet really been developed yet. This time around (if it really happens), they're attacking a market that's pretty well developed. Still growing, but by no means at an infant stage.
  - philwelch 16y ago
    The distinction between "a brand new market that hasn't yet really been developed yet" and a market that's "well developed [but] still growing" can only be drawn in retrospect. Wintel was a decade late to personal computers, but it turns out a decade late was early enough.
    - PakG1 16y ago
      Fair enough. But I'd also say the key metric to analyze would be market penetration, percentage of total population buying the products. A lot more people have cell phones these days, both percentage-wise and gross numbers-wise, than people had personal computers back in the day.
SwellJoe 16y ago
You'd have to define "this kind of partnership". There are a number of mobile device makers building Windows phones. And there have been many co-development and branding deals over the years with Microsoft and PC makers. Many have been successful, many have failed. This, however, brings to mind the OS/2 deal, to me. If Microsoft culture is anything like it was in the 90s (which may not be the case), I would expect Microsoft to be a loyal partner with Nokia until such time as it is advantageous for them to go their own way, leaving Nokia holding the bag on a jointly developed "standard" platform that no one else wants. But, hey, I'm a cynical old nerd that's been involved in technology too long. The fact that Microsoft is a distant third, and losing ground daily, in the market might make a difference in how they treat their friends.
- brudgers 16y ago
  The supposed Microsoft Nokia partnership isn't joint development of a phone OS. It looks more likely that Nokia could get out of the OS business altogether. I'm not sure that OS/2 is the best analogy. That wasn't a hardware company and software company teaming up. And it is unlikely that Nokia and Microsoft will evolve to become direct competitors in the way IBM and Microsoft did in the late 1980's and early 90's.
  - SwellJoe 16y ago
    "I'm not sure that OS/2 is the best analogy. That wasn't a hardware company and software company teaming up." I can't make any sense of this statement. IBM was the definitive hardware company at the time. Microsoft was the definitive software company at the time. What kind of companies do you think they were? "The supposed Microsoft Nokia partnership isn't joint development of a phone OS." As far as I can tell, we have no idea what sort of partnership they have in mind. But, I would expect Nokia to want a unique value, if they build Windows phones. And they have a huge development workforce, and have made numerous software acquisitions over the years. I'd be surprised if they don't plan to write some code, too.
    - philwelch 16y ago

madmath 16y ago

I could imagine Nokia becoming just a phone hardware manufacturer (many have pointed out that they have great hardware) like LG or HTC, and integrate software from companies such as Microsoft. If Samsung, LG, HTC do it, how hard can it be?

brown 16y ago
Nokia doesn't want that though. Nokia leadership views "just a phone hardware manufacturer" as a doomed fate in a commodity business, much like PC manufacturers have been a commodity for the past 10-20 years. Granted, Dell has done alright in that space, but overall that market still represents a commoditized business. Instead, Nokia wants to control the stack. That means having an integrated hardware + software solution. That creates real competitive advantage, which creates real profits. Apple has 25% margins. Dell has single digit margins.
- JulianMorrison 16y ago
  No-one else can be Apple. It's questionable how long Apple can continue to be Apple. They got to own a stack because they started way ahead of the competition and haven't slacked or hit any technological walls. Upon the inevitable moment they lose momentum, the clones baying at their heels will eat them. This happened before, with classic Mac before the Jobs renaissance. As for Nokia, the market has reached a point of consolidation on standards comparable to the collapse of competing computer types in the early 90s from Atari, Commodore, Acorn, Amstrad etc to PC and Mac and nothing else. So they can either sell hardware or die.
  - PakG1 16y ago
    It's interesting to note that Apple was in a very similar position back in those days. They were dying, and made the decision to buy NeXT to change OS directions. The primary consideration was the OS, not Jobs; they were apparently very close to buying BeOS instead. Jobs being the catalyst for strategic change happened to be a pleasant surprise. He didn't even become the CEO of Apple again until much later. So, to be clear, even Apple wasn't Apple. Apple didn't reinvent itself. Apple bought NeXT to try to go a new direction; that is, innovation was acquired, not developed in-house. Looks like Nokia would be forced to do the same, judging from the mood around meego (or in this case, simply partner with an outsider).

asmithmd1 16y ago

or two drunks tied together will walk in a straight line

StavrosK 16y ago
You know, I bet two drunks tied together would be way more stable than one. Four legs are better than two.
- philwelch 16y ago
  Two drunks tied together don't make four legs. They make two legs vs. two legs.
  - electromagnetic 16y ago
    I'm with you on that, I expect the probability of 'drunks tied together' falling down to increase following the square-cube law. I have a similar theory that the reason female washrooms always seem to have too few stalls is because their is a square-law going on. Ever notice how when your wife/girlfriend/friend goes to the washroom on their own they take roughly the same time as a guy, but when they go with their friend they easily take double the time it would for two guys, even assuming only one stall available. This is my reasoning on why buildings increase the number of washrooms rather than simply expanding on the one despite the extra washrooms usually being in inconvenient locations. I think somewhere some architect built a banquet hall with a 100 stall female washroom and at a function all the women knew each other, meaning they spent like two-weeks in the washroom and resorted to cannibalism.
    - philwelch 16y ago
      Female washrooms also have queueing inefficiencies compared to male washrooms. Women need a stall no matter what, men only need a stall in some cases and a urinal for other cases. And urinals have much higher throughput.
      - 16y ago