> Always compare results with a null model that reflects luck. If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this. It's possible to win lots of money based on

> Always compare results with a null model that reflects luck. If nothing else, playing poker has taught me this. It's possible to win lots of money based on making exceedingly poor bets and getting very lucky. There's one card left to come, there's a 5% chance an Ace will come, but if it does you'll have an unbeatable hand, if not, you have a hand that beats 66% of the possible hands. Do you bet? What happens if the Ace doesn't fall? A poor player who gets lucky will attribute his success to his obvious skill. A skillful player who gets lucky will chide himself for making a poor decision.