5 ms·

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

by tzfld 7y ago

sparkling 7y ago
There was been zero independent investigation yet from the aircraft manufacturer, a reputable aviation agency and/or the carrier. Iran declaring it a "technical defect" after just a few hours is not enough to rule out a accidental missile shoot or similar.
- jay_kyburz 7y ago
  Occam's Razor
- leoc 7y ago
  It seem likely that negotiating Boeing's involvement is going to be tense, with things as they are right now.
onetimemanytime 7y ago
Maybe, but average people will not believe it.
- mg794613 7y ago
  Average people? Look at the comments here. It's like it's facebook here: "off coarse it's fake, ww3 is coming".
  - onetimemanytime 7y ago
    But then, an airplane going down in the middle of what is essentially war begs for skepticism.
beagle3 7y ago
Could be e.g. the Iranian's shooting iit down due to hairline trigger Iranian defense (or otherwise a mistake identifying the civilian aircraft as enemy aircraft) - in this case, I would say it IS related to the conflict, even though it is entirely on one side.
- contravariant 7y ago
  At this rate, even if there's no causal relation it will still be related to the conflict before the day is over.
- kitteh 7y ago
  Given how many other aircraft depart tehran on that same route to the northwest that would be a massive error given how close it is to the airport.
  - saberdancer 7y ago
    That is what makes it problematic, but then again MH17 was also flying a regular route. People on edge make mistakes, and this plane was not flying on schedule which could have been what caused them to misidentify the plane. In a normal situation they'd investigate but this was not a normal situation.
    - kitteh 7y ago
      Eh to be fair there were plenty of NOTAMs out warning against the routes MH17 was on. However, the amount of garbage in NOTAMs makes it incredibly difficult for people to parse and take appropriate action. There are some great efforts by folks like Ops Group to try uplevel this space but it's difficult when people are overly broad with warnings for the sake of covering their ass legally. Then there are the situations where two countries are arguing over airspace boundaries, etc.
  - rurban 7y ago
    Yeah. But this was the very first morning flight at 5:15 AM this day, and possibly end of shift of a trigger-happy revolutionary guard in high alert. Massive error very likely. And very unlikely that it will be actually solved.
    - saberdancer 7y ago
      The plane was delayed on takeoff so it was "off schedule". It can trick you into thinking it's an unknown plane.
saberdancer 7y ago
How many new 737's drop down from the sky in a fireball with pieces falling away? All of this without pilot reporting any issues. Things to consider: 1. Iran launched an attack on US bases, their AA forces were on alert 2. Flight was delayed for over an hour, this could potentially appear as an unknown aircraft to an on edge AA crew (if they are operating the missiles each day, they know the routine flights) 3. 737s don't fall out from the sky in a fireball 4. Iran immediately reported that it crashed down due to "technical difficulties". I'd expect them to claim that US shot it down if they didn't know better. 5. Pilot didn't report a thing 6. Transponder data suddenly cut off. 7. Plane was climbing and could have appeared suddenly to AA positioned behind a ridge/mountain (from what I gather, Tehran is surrounded by mountains). In my opinion, it's almost certainly an explosion on the plane. It may be a bomb (unlikely in my opinion) or a missile. Given the heated nature of the situation it's much more likely to be human error on the missile battery than it is to be an unrelated explosion of an 737 while climbing out of Tehran.
- leoc 7y ago
  If so, it would be not too unlike MH17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 , and also a bitterly ironic echo of Iran Air 655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 .
- Hamuko 7y ago
  >737s don't fall out from the sky in a fireball You can make this same argument every time a flaw in an airplane is found for the first time. "The 737 MAX doesn't just dive itself into the ocean."
  - saberdancer 7y ago
    True, but when you take everything else in the consideration you can guesstimate the cause. Right now, looking at the wreckage field it looks like it completely fall apart mid air. Lot of wreckage seems to have shrapnel damage of roughly the same size.
orangemanrad 7y ago
.
- Waterluvian 7y ago
  Since one of you wackos are here I've got to ask. How deep is the deep state? Like mantle deep or Journey to the Center of the Earth deep? And what do the Morlocks think about its presence?
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

by tzfld 7y ago

Not related to the Iran-US conflict, it seems.

There was been zero independent investigation yet from the aircraft manufacturer, a reputable aviation agency and/or the carrier. Iran declaring it a "technical defect" after just a few hours is not enough to rule out a accidental missile shoot or similar.

jay_kyburz 7y ago
Occam's Razor
leoc 7y ago
It seem likely that negotiating Boeing's involvement is going to be tense, with things as they are right now.

onetimemanytime 7y ago

Maybe, but average people will not believe it.

mg794613 7y ago
Average people? Look at the comments here. It's like it's facebook here: "off coarse it's fake, ww3 is coming".
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  But then, an airplane going down in the middle of what is essentially war begs for skepticism.

beagle3 7y ago

Could be e.g. the Iranian's shooting iit down due to hairline trigger Iranian defense (or otherwise a mistake identifying the civilian aircraft as enemy aircraft) - in this case, I would say it IS related to the conflict, even though it is entirely on one side.

contravariant 7y ago
At this rate, even if there's no causal relation it will still be related to the conflict before the day is over.
kitteh 7y ago
Given how many other aircraft depart tehran on that same route to the northwest that would be a massive error given how close it is to the airport.
- saberdancer 7y ago
  That is what makes it problematic, but then again MH17 was also flying a regular route. People on edge make mistakes, and this plane was not flying on schedule which could have been what caused them to misidentify the plane. In a normal situation they'd investigate but this was not a normal situation.
  - kitteh 7y ago
    Eh to be fair there were plenty of NOTAMs out warning against the routes MH17 was on. However, the amount of garbage in NOTAMs makes it incredibly difficult for people to parse and take appropriate action. There are some great efforts by folks like Ops Group to try uplevel this space but it's difficult when people are overly broad with warnings for the sake of covering their ass legally. Then there are the situations where two countries are arguing over airspace boundaries, etc.
- rurban 7y ago
  Yeah. But this was the very first morning flight at 5:15 AM this day, and possibly end of shift of a trigger-happy revolutionary guard in high alert. Massive error very likely. And very unlikely that it will be actually solved.
  - saberdancer 7y ago
    The plane was delayed on takeoff so it was "off schedule". It can trick you into thinking it's an unknown plane.

saberdancer 7y ago

How many new 737's drop down from the sky in a fireball with pieces falling away? All of this without pilot reporting any issues. Things to consider: 1. Iran launched an attack on US bases, their AA forces were on alert 2. Flight was delayed for over an hour, this could potentially appear as an unknown aircraft to an on edge AA crew (if they are operating the missiles each day, they know the routine flights) 3. 737s don't fall out from the sky in a fireball 4. Iran immediately reported that it crashed down due to "technical difficulties". I'd expect them to claim that US shot it down if they didn't know better. 5. Pilot didn't report a thing 6. Transponder data suddenly cut off. 7. Plane was climbing and could have appeared suddenly to AA positioned behind a ridge/mountain (from what I gather, Tehran is surrounded by mountains). In my opinion, it's almost certainly an explosion on the plane. It may be a bomb (unlikely in my opinion) or a missile. Given the heated nature of the situation it's much more likely to be human error on the missile battery than it is to be an unrelated explosion of an 737 while climbing out of Tehran.

leoc 7y ago
If so, it would be not too unlike MH17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 , and also a bitterly ironic echo of Iran Air 655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655 .
Hamuko 7y ago
>737s don't fall out from the sky in a fireball You can make this same argument every time a flaw in an airplane is found for the first time. "The 737 MAX doesn't just dive itself into the ocean."
- saberdancer 7y ago
  True, but when you take everything else in the consideration you can guesstimate the cause. Right now, looking at the wreckage field it looks like it completely fall apart mid air. Lot of wreckage seems to have shrapnel damage of roughly the same size.

orangemanrad 7y ago

Waterluvian 7y ago
Since one of you wackos are here I've got to ask. How deep is the deep state? Like mantle deep or Journey to the Center of the Earth deep? And what do the Morlocks think about its presence?
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]