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I'm a big fan of https://www.memeorandum.com/ https://www.memeorandum.com/ but I saw a story on there that "almost 200 people had been arrested for setting fire

by e40 7y ago

I'm a big fan of https://www.memeorandum.com/ https://www.memeorandum.com/ but I saw a story on there that "almost 200 people had been arrested for setting fires" ... only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey.

vondur 7y ago
Well, it does seem to be semi factual, 183 people had been arrested, "only 24 of them for arson: 24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires 53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and 47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land. Source: https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s...
- johnbrodie 7y ago
  No one issuing these clarifications seems to also impart that those are only NSW numbers. Do we know what the totals are across the entire country?
  - lazyasciiart 7y ago
    They should also be including previous years data - I’ve seen a lot of people who appear to think arson was invented this summer. And a mind blowing few who think it was invented by people desperate to keep the climate change hoax going :/
    - mcantelon 7y ago
      24 people being charged with arson, deliberately setting forest fires, during this season seems like a lot.
      - lazyasciiart 7y ago
        I'm sure it does, to people who don't realize what the usual numbers are. That's why it should only be presented with the context of data from previous years. And that data says >The Australian Productivity Commission has calculated that between 2001–02 and 2006–07, [there was] an average of nearly 54,000 fires per year (SGRSP 2008). ... It is estimated that 50 percent of fires are either deliberately lit or suspicious in origin as shown in Figure 1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 edit: and to compare arson charges specifically, the same article says that between 2001 and 2006 there were 133 convicted bushfire arsonists in New South Wales - or about 20 per year convicted in a single state. Since there probably isn't a 100% conviction rate, I'd expect the total number charged each year for the whole country is along the order of 50 people.
        mcantelon 7y ago
        That's pretty crazy... if there's 133 convicted in that time span then the actual number of folks doing this might be considerably larger. This seems like a subject worth someone doing a documentary about given this is likely, if it's happening in Australia, happening in many other places.
        lazyasciiart 7y ago
        Of course it's larger, its tens of thousands of fires deliberately lit each year. There are books, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a documentary somewhere.
    - rrrhys 7y ago
      It's just a deflection point from certain media. Commented elsewhere: Arson has been stable for 24 months to September 2019, it's a shame the data capture stops there. It's made up to deflect. https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Recorded_Crime_Sept_2019.pdf https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Re... crime / 2018 / 2019 / Trend Arson / 5,692 / 4,934 / Stable
- WilTimSon 7y ago
  I think their complaint isn't about the story not being factual but about the fact that Alex Jones is an insane person/outrage feeder who shouldn't be quoted as a source. Instead, they could have quoted, well, the source you give. It's much more credible, after all.
  - reaperducer 7y ago
    The problem is that even a broken clock is correct twice a day. And for the sort of people who follow conspiracy theory whackjobs, that's all they need.
    - manicdee 7y ago
      A STOPPED clock is correct twice a day, as long as you already know what the time is you can tell that the clock is right at this time. A broken clock will always be wrong. Even if you already know what the time it, the fact that the broken clock looks like it is working will lead you to wanting to believe that it might be right just this once.
      - HeWhoLurksLate 7y ago
        Stopped clocks are generally considered to be a subset of broken clocks.
        manicdee 7y ago
        My apologies for not being extremely pedantic about my definitions in an allegory.
  - mcantelon 7y ago
    Insane people/outrage feeders will only be tolerated if they serve an establishment agenda.
    - __jal 7y ago
      No, but even if the crazy person is correct in this instance, I'm still not relying on them for political/personal safety/vitamin/any other information of any consequence.
- madeofpalk 7y ago
  Also, IIRC the number refers to people who were arrested as late as three months before the current fires.
  - SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
    That’s 24 caught. How many were not caught? https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-starting-bushfires/a-51234527 https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-s... I’m not sure what would possess someone to do this. As if the earth needs any more “help” from idiots, right!?
- cmroanirgo 7y ago
  As an aside, I didn't realise we had explicit laws for smoking: > Light or use a tobacco product within 15metres of any stack of grain, hay corn, straw or any standing crop, dry grass or stubble field – up to a $5500 fine. Mum grew up on a wheat station (meaning: huge farm/ranch) and always said that the wheat fires moved pretty quickly, so I suppose that's where this law comes from.
- e40 7y ago
  The item I put in quotes is very specific and not at all like what you quoted.
Maxious 7y ago
This figure is wrong, although Donald Trump Jr didn't round up the 183 to 200. https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 The original police statement was "The NSW Police Force has taken legal action against more than 180 people for bushfire-related offences since late last year." of which only "24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires". https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s... Most of the offenses are for having a barbeque/campfire during a "total fire ban" day or discarding a lit cigarette - these receive formal cautions or fines > Discarding a cigarette from a vehicle can attract a fine for littering of $250, the NSW Environmental Protection Authority states. If it’s lit and tossed away, the fine is $660, which doubles on a day of total fire ban to $1320. > Lighting a fire on a day of total fire ban attracts an on the spot fine of $2200. If the matter goes to court, you could face a fine of up to $5500 or 12 months behind bars.
elfexec 7y ago
> only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey. Was he right or wrong? I love the "appeal to authority" and "ad hominem" arguments made by people. Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko"?
- ticmasta 7y ago
  >> Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko" Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie, while a wacko can get it right occasionally without being truthful. It kind of feels like you're confusing single-roll probability with cumulative odds; who are you going to bet on over the long term?
  - elfexec 7y ago
    > Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie That's the type of thing I imagine someone in north korea saying. By definition does not lie? That's news to me and certainly not true of any "authoritative sources". Every authoritative sources has lied. Even more, every autoritative sources was created specifically to lie. If you think I'm wrong, go read about the creation of these "authoritative sources". Who created them and why? Even the hallowed BBC by definition told lies. Orwell worked for the BBC Eastern Service as a propagandist. It was one of his inspirations for 1984. You might have heard of him. > who are you going to bet on over the long term? Neither - especially when it comes to important issues. As I said the slavish "appeal to authority". It's the basis of all tyranny.
- mcantelon 7y ago
  The mainstream media can push conspiracy theories, such as Russiagate, until the cows come home but people are generally fine with that. During Russiagate numerous establishment outlets pushed blatantly false stories, such as Buzzfeed's story, refuted pretty much immediately by Mueller, about Trump supposedly directing Michael Cohen to lie to Congress and the Guardian's story about Manafort allegedly meeting with Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy (a meeting that likely never actually happened given there were no records of it at the embassy). Neither of these two example stories were retracted IIRC.

by e40 7y ago

vondur 7y ago

Well, it does seem to be semi factual, 183 people had been arrested, "only 24 of them for arson: 24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires 53 people have had legal actions for allegedly failing to comply with a total fire ban, and 47 people have had legal actions for allegedly discarding a lighted cigarette or match on land. Source: https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s...

johnbrodie 7y ago
No one issuing these clarifications seems to also impart that those are only NSW numbers. Do we know what the totals are across the entire country?
- lazyasciiart 7y ago
  They should also be including previous years data - I’ve seen a lot of people who appear to think arson was invented this summer. And a mind blowing few who think it was invented by people desperate to keep the climate change hoax going :/
  - mcantelon 7y ago
    24 people being charged with arson, deliberately setting forest fires, during this season seems like a lot.
    - lazyasciiart 7y ago
      I'm sure it does, to people who don't realize what the usual numbers are. That's why it should only be presented with the context of data from previous years. And that data says >The Australian Productivity Commission has calculated that between 2001–02 and 2006–07, [there was] an average of nearly 54,000 fires per year (SGRSP 2008). ... It is estimated that 50 percent of fires are either deliberately lit or suspicious in origin as shown in Figure 1. https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 https://aic.gov.au/publications/bfab/bfab059 edit: and to compare arson charges specifically, the same article says that between 2001 and 2006 there were 133 convicted bushfire arsonists in New South Wales - or about 20 per year convicted in a single state. Since there probably isn't a 100% conviction rate, I'd expect the total number charged each year for the whole country is along the order of 50 people.
      - mcantelon 7y ago
        That's pretty crazy... if there's 133 convicted in that time span then the actual number of folks doing this might be considerably larger. This seems like a subject worth someone doing a documentary about given this is likely, if it's happening in Australia, happening in many other places.
        lazyasciiart 7y ago
        Of course it's larger, its tens of thousands of fires deliberately lit each year. There are books, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a documentary somewhere.
  - rrrhys 7y ago
    It's just a deflection point from certain media. Commented elsewhere: Arson has been stable for 24 months to September 2019, it's a shame the data capture stops there. It's made up to deflect. https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Recorded_Crime_Sept_2019.pdf https://www.bocsar.nsw.gov.au/Documents/RCS-Quarterly/NSW_Re... crime / 2018 / 2019 / Trend Arson / 5,692 / 4,934 / Stable
WilTimSon 7y ago
I think their complaint isn't about the story not being factual but about the fact that Alex Jones is an insane person/outrage feeder who shouldn't be quoted as a source. Instead, they could have quoted, well, the source you give. It's much more credible, after all.
- reaperducer 7y ago
  The problem is that even a broken clock is correct twice a day. And for the sort of people who follow conspiracy theory whackjobs, that's all they need.
  - manicdee 7y ago
    A STOPPED clock is correct twice a day, as long as you already know what the time is you can tell that the clock is right at this time. A broken clock will always be wrong. Even if you already know what the time it, the fact that the broken clock looks like it is working will lead you to wanting to believe that it might be right just this once.
    - HeWhoLurksLate 7y ago
      Stopped clocks are generally considered to be a subset of broken clocks.
      - manicdee 7y ago
        My apologies for not being extremely pedantic about my definitions in an allegory.
- mcantelon 7y ago
  Insane people/outrage feeders will only be tolerated if they serve an establishment agenda.
  - __jal 7y ago
    No, but even if the crazy person is correct in this instance, I'm still not relying on them for political/personal safety/vitamin/any other information of any consequence.
madeofpalk 7y ago
Also, IIRC the number refers to people who were arrested as late as three months before the current fires.
- SlowRobotAhead 7y ago
  That’s 24 caught. How many were not caught? https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-starting-bushfires/a-51234527 https://m.dw.com/en/australia-police-arrest-man-accused-of-s... I’m not sure what would possess someone to do this. As if the earth needs any more “help” from idiots, right!?
cmroanirgo 7y ago
As an aside, I didn't realise we had explicit laws for smoking: > Light or use a tobacco product within 15metres of any stack of grain, hay corn, straw or any standing crop, dry grass or stubble field – up to a $5500 fine. Mum grew up on a wheat station (meaning: huge farm/ranch) and always said that the wheat fires moved pretty quickly, so I suppose that's where this law comes from.
e40 7y ago
The item I put in quotes is very specific and not at all like what you quoted.

Maxious 7y ago

This figure is wrong, although Donald Trump Jr didn't round up the 183 to 200. https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 https://twitter.com/jason_a_w/status/1214581876838428672 The original police statement was "The NSW Police Force has taken legal action against more than 180 people for bushfire-related offences since late last year." of which only "24 people have been charged over alleged deliberately-lit bushfires". https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_src=%2BdXJsPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGZWJpenByZC5wb2xpY2UubnN3Lmdvdi5hdSUyRm1lZGlhJTJGODIyNjQuaHRtbCZhbGw9MQ%3D%3D https://www.police.nsw.gov.au/news/news_article?sq_content_s... Most of the offenses are for having a barbeque/campfire during a "total fire ban" day or discarding a lit cigarette - these receive formal cautions or fines > Discarding a cigarette from a vehicle can attract a fine for littering of $250, the NSW Environmental Protection Authority states. If it’s lit and tossed away, the fine is $660, which doubles on a day of total fire ban to $1320. > Lighting a fire on a day of total fire ban attracts an on the spot fine of $2200. If the matter goes to court, you could face a fine of up to $5500 or 12 months behind bars.

elfexec 7y ago

> only to find Alex Jones was one of the sources. Crikey. Was he right or wrong? I love the "appeal to authority" and "ad hominem" arguments made by people. Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko"?

ticmasta 7y ago
>> Would you rather a lie from an "authoritative" source or a truth from a "wacko" Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie, while a wacko can get it right occasionally without being truthful. It kind of feels like you're confusing single-roll probability with cumulative odds; who are you going to bet on over the long term?
- elfexec 7y ago
  > Well, an authoritative source can still be wrong but by definition does not lie That's the type of thing I imagine someone in north korea saying. By definition does not lie? That's news to me and certainly not true of any "authoritative sources". Every authoritative sources has lied. Even more, every autoritative sources was created specifically to lie. If you think I'm wrong, go read about the creation of these "authoritative sources". Who created them and why? Even the hallowed BBC by definition told lies. Orwell worked for the BBC Eastern Service as a propagandist. It was one of his inspirations for 1984. You might have heard of him. > who are you going to bet on over the long term? Neither - especially when it comes to important issues. As I said the slavish "appeal to authority". It's the basis of all tyranny.
mcantelon 7y ago
The mainstream media can push conspiracy theories, such as Russiagate, until the cows come home but people are generally fine with that. During Russiagate numerous establishment outlets pushed blatantly false stories, such as Buzzfeed's story, refuted pretty much immediately by Mueller, about Trump supposedly directing Michael Cohen to lie to Congress and the Guardian's story about Manafort allegedly meeting with Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy (a meeting that likely never actually happened given there were no records of it at the embassy). Neither of these two example stories were retracted IIRC.