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It's because this kind of hype inevitably leads to a trough of disillusionment -- the methods we collectively call "AI" today are never going to lead to a gener

It's because this kind of hype inevitably leads to a trough of disillusionment -- the methods we collectively call "AI" today are never going to lead to a general-purpose artificial intelligence. People are disappointed we don't have self-driving cars yet, but it's not clear whether that problem domain is constrained enough for deep neural networks to solve. What we have developed are ways to automate complex tasks within a constrained input domain that can be easily quantified. It seems like magic, which leads people to say that it's "AI" but in reality it's just a complex automation built through reinforcement techniques that leverage some clever math tricks. Throw an unexpected input or new set of circumstances at the model and you get interesting results. It's not a sense that people are overestimating the speed with which AI is going to overtake human intelligence -- it's that the techniques we're using today that we call "AI" are not capable of doing anything of the sort.

hunter-gatherer 7y ago
This. Working in big Corp and Government I have seen how far this disillusionment can take an organization down the wrong road. Learning how to articulate complex technical / scientific topics to bureaucracy, I am learning, is a very valuable and needed skill amongst engineers.
- wayoutthere 7y ago
  It's a fine line you have to walk. They usually are looking for a person who will tell them what they want to hear, so it's usually a matter of starting with "the art of the possible" (aka a bunch of bullshit they heard on NPR) and working them over to something more realistic. I've found it helps if you can frame it in the context of the other options (i.e. agree with where they want to go and present multiple ways to get there) they're more receptive. Leaders know about these hype cycles too, but they often have to play along for political reasons and they'll be thankful if you work with them rather than against them.

hunter-gatherer 7y ago

This. Working in big Corp and Government I have seen how far this disillusionment can take an organization down the wrong road. Learning how to articulate complex technical / scientific topics to bureaucracy, I am learning, is a very valuable and needed skill amongst engineers.

wayoutthere 7y ago
It's a fine line you have to walk. They usually are looking for a person who will tell them what they want to hear, so it's usually a matter of starting with "the art of the possible" (aka a bunch of bullshit they heard on NPR) and working them over to something more realistic. I've found it helps if you can frame it in the context of the other options (i.e. agree with where they want to go and present multiple ways to get there) they're more receptive. Leaders know about these hype cycles too, but they often have to play along for political reasons and they'll be thankful if you work with them rather than against them.