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Also, it's unlikely there will ever be another Musk or Zuckerberg in tech. Technology is a largely established industry and it's very unlikely that a single pe

Also, it's unlikely there will ever be another Musk or Zuckerberg in tech. Technology is a largely established industry and it's very unlikely that a single person is going to found and maintain control of another trillion dollar company. Zuck-a-bees need to get in on the ground floor of the next, next big thing, which barely exists right now.

pansa 7y ago
Did tech “barely exist” when Zuckerberg started Facebook in 2004?
klik99 7y ago
This may be correct, but you cannot be certain of this at all. Everyone always thinks they're at the end of history in one way or another. Saying that current big tech companies have reached a critical threshold and will remain static for a certain amount of time is like watching a stock price go up - you may think it's a sign that it will continue growing, or that it's peaking and will go down, but you can only say that with certainty in hindsight. Nassim Taleb would go as far to say that there are much less actual underlying trends, and that more is governed by randomness than you think. In terms of emerging technology, growth and consolidation is a pattern that happens throughout history, and the current state does appear to match that pattern, but this situation is more volatile because the big companies don't have as much physical assets which vastly changes the ability for smaller companies to compete (source: capitalism without capital).
- cambalache 7y ago
  It is not correct. Visit Slashdot archives during the post early 2000s boom era. Every poster saying that the era of getting rich from the Internet was over. See any technology or industry and 90% of the commenters would say that it is too late to get in the bandwagon, the right time was 4,8,12 years ago. Every year the comments are pretty much in the same vein. I am not saying it is easy, far from it, but the idea that there is no chance for unknown person/companies cannot grow to establish themselves as giants is ludicrous.
sombremesa 7y ago
What are you talking about? The next big thing after the wave FB rode already happened and Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp et al rode that wave. And the next wave after that is already happening, but you'll have to figure that one out on your own.
dot1x 7y ago
One word: Crypto. Crypto is the next thing.

pansa 7y ago

Did tech “barely exist” when Zuckerberg started Facebook in 2004?

klik99 7y ago

This may be correct, but you cannot be certain of this at all. Everyone always thinks they're at the end of history in one way or another. Saying that current big tech companies have reached a critical threshold and will remain static for a certain amount of time is like watching a stock price go up - you may think it's a sign that it will continue growing, or that it's peaking and will go down, but you can only say that with certainty in hindsight. Nassim Taleb would go as far to say that there are much less actual underlying trends, and that more is governed by randomness than you think. In terms of emerging technology, growth and consolidation is a pattern that happens throughout history, and the current state does appear to match that pattern, but this situation is more volatile because the big companies don't have as much physical assets which vastly changes the ability for smaller companies to compete (source: capitalism without capital).

cambalache 7y ago
It is not correct. Visit Slashdot archives during the post early 2000s boom era. Every poster saying that the era of getting rich from the Internet was over. See any technology or industry and 90% of the commenters would say that it is too late to get in the bandwagon, the right time was 4,8,12 years ago. Every year the comments are pretty much in the same vein. I am not saying it is easy, far from it, but the idea that there is no chance for unknown person/companies cannot grow to establish themselves as giants is ludicrous.

sombremesa 7y ago

What are you talking about? The next big thing after the wave FB rode already happened and Snapchat, Instagram, WhatsApp et al rode that wave. And the next wave after that is already happening, but you'll have to figure that one out on your own.

dot1x 7y ago

One word: Crypto. Crypto is the next thing.