4 ms·
The indicator is stock market capitalization / GDP. Today's level exceeds the record set in 2000 (~150%). You can get the graph shown in raster form in the art
by aazaa 7y ago
The indicator is stock market capitalization / GDP. Today's level exceeds the record set in 2000 (~150%).
You can get the graph shown in raster form in the article from the Federal Reserve:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB
A point to consider: the Buffet Indicator peaks before a recession actually is recorded, then falls heading into the recession. At least going back to 1996.
Oddly, it looks like the Fed series lacks the last two years.
This article shows a series from present back to 1950:
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/01/06/market-cap-to-gdp-an-updated-look-at-the-buffett-valuation-indicator https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/01/0...
Here, it's interesting to note that the lowest level is ~30% (1954, 1983).
Discrepancies appear related to the numerator (Wilshire 5000 vs some other custom index).
It appears that the Fed data use inflation-adjusted GDP.
- pacaro 7y agoIt's also interesting to look at the series from 1950 and see that regardless of "corrections" that there is a gradual upward trend, so even if a high value is predictive of a bubble we don't necessarily know what the threshold is.