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> they have not really been able to detect an increase in hurricanes (the natural disaster that semi-regularly hits Florida) due to climate change Correct, not

> they have not really been able to detect an increase in hurricanes (the natural disaster that semi-regularly hits Florida) due to climate change Correct, not a significant increase in the number of hurricanes, but they are projecting an increase in destructive power. > The IPCC AR5 presents a strong body of scientific evidence that most of the global warming observed over the past half century is very likely due to human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. > it is likely that greenhouse warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes. > the lifetime maximum intensity of Atlantic hurricanes will increase by about 5% during the 21st century > We also conclude that it is likely that climate warming will cause Atlantic hurricanes in the coming century have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes, and medium confidence that they will be more intense (higher peak winds and lower central pressures) on average.

milkytron 7y ago
> they are projecting an increase in destructive power. Is this being measured by wind forces, tidal surges, etc?
- everdev 7y ago
  Mostly higher rainfall / flooding (due to warmer waters). For wind, it sounds modest. They project the strongest hurricanes to be 5% stronger (windier) by 2100 than the strongest hurricanes today. Of course there are other factors too like sea level rise which isn't factored in I don't think. If your city is already flooded and a hurricane hits, I'd imagine the damage would be worse or last for longer.
mfer 7y ago
The original article was about cost of damage from storms. It was looking at the past. If the atlantic basin has not yet seen an increase in number of hurricanes or intensity of them than that's important when looking at the reason for storm damage costs. We can't yet say the increase in cost is due to hurricanes. Projections on future increases (which concern me) do not have an effect on already observed costs. I know places where this point is lost.

milkytron 7y ago

> they are projecting an increase in destructive power. Is this being measured by wind forces, tidal surges, etc?

everdev 7y ago
Mostly higher rainfall / flooding (due to warmer waters). For wind, it sounds modest. They project the strongest hurricanes to be 5% stronger (windier) by 2100 than the strongest hurricanes today. Of course there are other factors too like sea level rise which isn't factored in I don't think. If your city is already flooded and a hurricane hits, I'd imagine the damage would be worse or last for longer.

mfer 7y ago

The original article was about cost of damage from storms. It was looking at the past. If the atlantic basin has not yet seen an increase in number of hurricanes or intensity of them than that's important when looking at the reason for storm damage costs. We can't yet say the increase in cost is due to hurricanes. Projections on future increases (which concern me) do not have an effect on already observed costs. I know places where this point is lost.