6 ms·
Why is every single reply thus far head in the sand, fingers in the ears denialism? This is a report that simply repeats what the Federal Reserve Bank of Philad
by endorphone 7y ago
Why is every single reply thus far head in the sand, fingers in the ears denialism? This is a report that simply repeats what the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia predicts.
The US economy is cyclical, and it's had a very good boom cycle (which was sweetened by QE, historically low interest rates, AND a trillion dollar deficit, all absolutely incredible during full-employment and full-growth. The US is now at a point where during a downturn it has few tools left to do anything to respond to a slowing of the economy, and where that trillion dollar deficit is going to look really foolish in retrospect)
The whole "fake news!" retort to everything on here has grown incredibly depressing, and profoundly self-defeating. Short of legitimate evidence to the contrary, it should be immediately shouted down
- metalliqaz 7y agoHumans have a natural tendency to discount things that are unpleasant. A site like this one contains a lot of people that have a lot to lose if the economy makes a downturn. This kind of blind spot was featured prominently in The Big Short, especially the Brownfield Capital plot line (2015 film). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias#Decision-making https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias#Decision-makin...
- bilbo0s 7y ago>Humans have a natural tendency to discount things that are unpleasant. I think it might be more accurate to say we discount things that do not support our world views. If something is unpleasant, but supports our world view, even if that thing is not entirely true we give it a lot of weight. If the unpleasantness does not support our worldview however, well, yeah, even if it is completely true, we tend to dismiss that information.
- metalliqaz 7y agoI think what you say is true, but I was referring intentionally to unpleasant things in general. It goes beyond worldviews. There are plenty of things that don't really have to be filtered through a worldview to be bad, like losing your house to a flood, or having your entire retirement wiped out, or being under-insured when you get cancer. Even professional analysts tend to lowball the risk on doomsday events.