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That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument.
by yyyk 7y ago
That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument.
Anyway, as I said, the US never did intend to overthrow the regime, so that scenario isn't relevant - unless the Iranian people make a go for it, but that's not up to us.
As for the regime being weak, the key point is that the regime's military counter-pressure plan has failed.
All the wild attacks you cite are tactical victories but strategical failures - they have failed to affect the sanctions or even world oil prices (barring small insignificant blips), yet have led much of the world to see Iran as a threat.
By shooting and failing to win, the regime lost the deterrent value of these threats. When the US showed it is not afraid to escalate, Iran lost that threat too.
What's left? Continuing a strategically failed campaign? Massive escalation, which will lead to the regime getting crushed?
Another important point to remember is that Suleimani wasn't just a general, but the de facto vice-Supreme Leader, the one leader with significant popularity the regime had. It's a huge domestic loss.
- emilsedgh 7y ago> That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument. You seem to assume ISIS penetrated Iraq because Iraq was Sunni and people accepted ISIS. ISIS would penetrate _anywhere_ that is unstable enough to be penetrated.
- yyyk 7y agoISIS is a terrorist organization without heavy weapons or real logistical capability. It can't take over in an environment which is almost 100% non-Sunni (no local recruits) and so far from its home bases or international routes (no logistics).
- emilsedgh 7y agoIran is 10% Sunni. And the Sunni parts are close to Iraq's border. Also, you are forgetting the potential this area has for development of new similar groups. Iran even had similar groups formed within it's own territory which are still active: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan
- yyyk 7y agoThe Baluchi cause (the subject of all your links) is a nationalist cause sometimes pretending to be a religious cause. If a Baluchi group ever got any significant power it would be a massive headache for Pakistan but it's not really a concern for the West. ISIS and al-Qaeda never managed to make much headway in the Kurdish areas. What's left? Ahvaz? Which borders Basra and is controlled with an iron fist?