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Since I ignored the Shia/Sunni situation, you assumed that was due to my ignorance. I'm an Iranian (Actually a Jewish Iranian, hence, much more information abo

Since I ignored the Shia/Sunni situation, you assumed that was due to my ignorance. I'm an Iranian (Actually a Jewish Iranian, hence, much more information about religion dynamics in Iran). I agree that Shia/Sunni dynamic is unlikely to cause instability in Iran, there are many more dynamics that can be exploited: 1. Iran is very diverse regarding ethnicity. A dozen different ethnicities live in Iran which makes a Libya situation possible (Although unlikely) 2. A civil war, where government fight armed people, like Syria. I'm pretty much sure many countries would love to do what they did to Syria by arming worst possible forces. > Even if (hopefully) Trump is not reelected, he's shown that the regime is much weaker than it appears to be. Iran is under heaviest of sanctions. Economy is crushed. Yet, they control Iraq, they destroyed a U.S. drone, seized a British tanker, attacked Saudi oil causing major damage to Aramco's IPO (Biggest in history) and caused the bigger disruption in flow of Oil in the past decades and they got almost 0 reactions back and you are saying me they are considered weaker because a general was killed?

yyyk 7y ago
That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument. Anyway, as I said, the US never did intend to overthrow the regime, so that scenario isn't relevant - unless the Iranian people make a go for it, but that's not up to us. As for the regime being weak, the key point is that the regime's military counter-pressure plan has failed. All the wild attacks you cite are tactical victories but strategical failures - they have failed to affect the sanctions or even world oil prices (barring small insignificant blips), yet have led much of the world to see Iran as a threat. By shooting and failing to win, the regime lost the deterrent value of these threats. When the US showed it is not afraid to escalate, Iran lost that threat too. What's left? Continuing a strategically failed campaign? Massive escalation, which will lead to the regime getting crushed? Another important point to remember is that Suleimani wasn't just a general, but the de facto vice-Supreme Leader, the one leader with significant popularity the regime had. It's a huge domestic loss.
- emilsedgh 7y ago
  > That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument. You seem to assume ISIS penetrated Iraq because Iraq was Sunni and people accepted ISIS. ISIS would penetrate _anywhere_ that is unstable enough to be penetrated.
  - yyyk 7y ago
    ISIS is a terrorist organization without heavy weapons or real logistical capability. It can't take over in an environment which is almost 100% non-Sunni (no local recruits) and so far from its home bases or international routes (no logistics).
    - emilsedgh 7y ago
      Iran is 10% Sunni. And the Sunni parts are close to Iraq's border. Also, you are forgetting the potential this area has for development of new similar groups. Iran even had similar groups formed within it's own territory which are still active: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan
      - yyyk 7y ago
        The Baluchi cause (the subject of all your links) is a nationalist cause sometimes pretending to be a religious cause. If a Baluchi group ever got any significant power it would be a massive headache for Pakistan but it's not really a concern for the West. ISIS and al-Qaeda never managed to make much headway in the Kurdish areas. What's left? Ahvaz? Which borders Basra and is controlled with an iron fist?

yyyk 7y ago

That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument. Anyway, as I said, the US never did intend to overthrow the regime, so that scenario isn't relevant - unless the Iranian people make a go for it, but that's not up to us. As for the regime being weak, the key point is that the regime's military counter-pressure plan has failed. All the wild attacks you cite are tactical victories but strategical failures - they have failed to affect the sanctions or even world oil prices (barring small insignificant blips), yet have led much of the world to see Iran as a threat. By shooting and failing to win, the regime lost the deterrent value of these threats. When the US showed it is not afraid to escalate, Iran lost that threat too. What's left? Continuing a strategically failed campaign? Massive escalation, which will lead to the regime getting crushed? Another important point to remember is that Suleimani wasn't just a general, but the de facto vice-Supreme Leader, the one leader with significant popularity the regime had. It's a huge domestic loss.

emilsedgh 7y ago
> That you are supposedly informed makes this worse, because if true, you know ISIS/Al-Qaeda have zero chances of prospering in Iran yet still made that argument. You seem to assume ISIS penetrated Iraq because Iraq was Sunni and people accepted ISIS. ISIS would penetrate _anywhere_ that is unstable enough to be penetrated.
- yyyk 7y ago
  ISIS is a terrorist organization without heavy weapons or real logistical capability. It can't take over in an environment which is almost 100% non-Sunni (no local recruits) and so far from its home bases or international routes (no logistics).
  - emilsedgh 7y ago
    Iran is 10% Sunni. And the Sunni parts are close to Iraq's border. Also, you are forgetting the potential this area has for development of new similar groups. Iran even had similar groups formed within it's own territory which are still active: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jundallah_(Iran) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaish_ul-Adl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harakat_Ansar_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ansar_Al-Furqan
    - yyyk 7y ago
      The Baluchi cause (the subject of all your links) is a nationalist cause sometimes pretending to be a religious cause. If a Baluchi group ever got any significant power it would be a massive headache for Pakistan but it's not really a concern for the West. ISIS and al-Qaeda never managed to make much headway in the Kurdish areas. What's left? Ahvaz? Which borders Basra and is controlled with an iron fist?