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Long time lurker. Decided to post so I could look back with a chuckle in 10 years. Here are some 20's predictions split up into different categories. Technolog
by oramit 7y ago
Long time lurker. Decided to post so I could look back with a chuckle in 10 years. Here are some 20's predictions split up into different categories.
Technology:
- The web will continue to eat everything. Local applications outside of gaming/office work all but die, replaced by web apps, wasm payloads, and electron apps.
- Self Driving cars continue to be "just around the corner"
- Smartphones reached a design peak in the 10's and we will be surprised that they don't radically change in the 20's
- Electric vehicle sales eclipse ICE
- Lab grown meat finally happens (released at similar to meat prices) but is a complete flop because it's not "real"
- Slow and steady battery tech improvements are going to unleash a ton of innovation in this decade we can't anticipate yet.
Culture:
- Pot is legalized federally and a general wave of decrim for other substances like psilocybin/lsd goes mainstream.
- A president or serious presidential candidate will have their nudes leaked and it will be a huge deal for about a week and then nobody will care. They go on to win the election :p
- Privacy becomes even more dead than it is now. Private cameras and audio assistants are already ubiquitous; imagine that but 10x. All us nerds will continue complaining and the general public won't care.
- Boomers begin retiring en-masse but they have not saved enough. Expect lots of stories about medical bankruptcy and boomers having to take minimum wage jobs to stay afloat. I also expect the "lazy millenial in the basement" trope to completely reverse and become "millenials helping boomers age in place"
Business:
- The news industry continues to be a mess. Local papers that are struggling now all go under leaving only the very large "Papers of Record" left. TV news declines as everyone shifts to online.
- Streaming video becomes a very big deal. I expect a new platform to ascend and for all new "News" and "Entertainment" personalities to pop up. Think Joe Rogan but 10x. Presidential Candidates will have to go on these shows to be taken seriously.
- Of the faang stocks I expect Apple and Netflix to do poorly this coming decade. Apple has little innovation left in it and Netflix has a ton of competition. Facebook and Google I expect to be solid businesses still but not innovative. Amazon will continue to dominate to the point that anti-trust is seriously considered.
- I expect a recession to hit in the next 3 years. It's going to really hurt Boomers who are trying to catch up on underfunded 401ks. It will be a short recession though because any stock correction of note will be aggressively countered by fed policy and government spending. There will be no serious consideration given to austerity. Inflation will finally be unleashed by this process.
Global:
- Closed internets become common. The Great Firewall or similar techniques will be adopted in many countries to stifle dissent but also as a means to stop ubiquitous hacking.
- Africa becomes the new global growth hot spot - it already has been happening but this is the decade everyone realizes it and rushes in like they did to China.
- Kim Jong-un will still run NK and still be shooting off rockets every 6 months or so to get attention.
- Global warming effects will really set in and be obvious to everyone. The talking points on this will completely shift from denial to fatalism ("well its already a little damaged so why not more?"). Nothing continues to get done though because of the need for coordinated global action in a new decade of nationalism.