4 ms·

Iran Loses Its Indispensable Man

27 points by iron0013 7y ago

danso 7y ago
The New Yorker's 2013 article, "The Shadow Commander", is excellent and very indepth, and still very relevant today for what Suleimani's death means: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-com...
- hnhg 7y ago
  Also worth a read: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/quasim-soleimani-death-who-was-iran-us-uk-relations-qasem https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/quasim-soleimani...
Lordarminius 7y ago
When the retaliation comes, more Americans are going to need 'dem' electric cars. In any case, Souleimans' value was not only military. He was a formidable politician as well. His achievements far outstripped that of the US agents. One example : ... the crucial deal that brought the Iraqi government together was made not by them but by Suleimani. In the months before, according to several Iraqi and Western officials, Suleimani invited senior Shiite and Kurdish leaders to meet with him in Tehran and Qom, and extracted from them a promise to support Maliki, his preferred candidate. The deal had a complex array of enticements. Maliki and Assad disliked each other; Suleimani brought them together by forging an agreement to build a lucrative oil pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian border. In order to bring the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in line, Suleimani agreed to place his men in the Iraqi service ministries. Most remarkable, according to the Iraqi and Western officials, were the two conditions that Suleimani imposed on the Iraqis. The first was that Jalal Talabani, a longtime friend of the Iranian regime, become President. The second was that Maliki and his coalition partners insist that all American troops leave the country. “Suleimani said: no Americans,” the former Iraqi leader told me. “A ten-year relationship, down the drain.” Iraqi officials told me that, at the time of Jeffrey’s announcement, the Americans knew that Suleimani had pushed them out of the country but were too embarrassed to admit it in public. “We were laughing at the Americans,” the former Iraqi leader told me, growing angry as he recalled the situation. “Fuck it! Fuck it!” he said. “Suleimani completely outmaneuvered them, and in public they were congratulating themselves for putting the government together.” https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-com...
- dennnis 7y ago
  The US produces more oil
  - tzs 7y ago
    It's a world market. US as a producer sells oil both domestically and abroad. US as a consumer consumes both domestic oil and foreign oil. In 2018, it worked out to about 9.9 million barrels/day of foreign oil being imported, and 7.6 million barrels/day of US oil being exported. If something disrupts production of some major world exporter X, causing the world market price to rise or causing shortages on the world market, US domestically sees that too.
    - hackeraccount 7y ago
      So does Iran - if the price of oil goes up they pay more domestically as well. As it happens they subsidize the price of energy internally but that brings more problems then it solves.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
One of the things about the Middle East is that politics and diplomacy are intensely personal. It is less about the office and more about the person. Suleimani spent decades cultivating all sorts of relationships throughout the region and that will be sorely missed by Iran.
- goldcd 7y ago
  Agreed - the obvious (and yet neglected) pertinent point is what type of relationships were these that he cultivated? Were his associates doing "his will" because they feared him (glad he's dead) or because they agreed (wish to avenge this)? Or if as multiple reports indicate he was actually the "2nd most important Iranian" - let's flip it and pretend he's the USA's "Mike Pence". Now even the most ardent Trump Supporter I suspect doesn't give a toss about the wellbeing of "Mike Pence" - maybe there'd be a week of mourning in the lobby industry if he popped his clogs, but we'd get over it. However if the Iranians had assassinated him (and posted pictures showing them doing it), I can see maybe a sizable proportion of both sides might consider a response to be appropriate. So - "They've just assassinated our VP - what response do we think is commensurate?
  - taurath 7y ago
    Its quite reasonable to postulate that more americans and iraqis will die in the next year because of this action.
pmoriarty 7y ago
I'm actually kind of surprised there aren't more assassinations around the world (not just by the US government, but by all sorts of violent groups, at the nation-state level and below), since there's so much world-wide travel these days, and technology is so much more effective and advanced than it used to be. Either security agencies are really good at preventing them, or the assassins are really incompetent or maybe not interested (which seems improbable).
- ttul 7y ago
  I imagine the president receives a list of potential targets on a regular basis and for whatever reason, this one resonated this time. They had his location - probably a rare intelligence coup - and Trump was advised that it was now or never if he wanted to make a huge statement following the rocket attacks earlier in the week. I would imagine that the intelligence agencies frequently know where targets are, but only rarely carry out a strike.
  - markdown 7y ago
    > Trump was advised that it was now or never if he wanted to make a huge statement He's tweeted about why he wanted to do it: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/382923478157910016 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/38292347815791001... https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/255784560904773633 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/25578456090477363... https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/141604554855825408 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/14160455485582540...
  - taurath 7y ago
    His location is not the issue. He traveled nearly openly because to kill him would be a demand for open war.
- hnnnnnnngggggg 7y ago
  It is possible that something like the War of Assassins (Dune Universe, sorry) happens. Iran knows that it cannot openly strike civilian targets less it draws the ire of China and Russia nor could it match the US military in open combat, so that leaves Iran targeted assassinations in response, which their asymmetric units are perfectly fit to do. I'd be concerned if I were a high-level civilian admin or military officer in the US government. The US is not going to glass Teran in response to a high-level US official being killed either as again it would draw the ire of the World community. Expect Assinantions.

27 points by iron0013 7y ago

The New Yorker's 2013 article, "The Shadow Commander", is excellent and very indepth, and still very relevant today for what Suleimani's death means: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-com...

hnhg 7y ago
Also worth a read: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/quasim-soleimani-death-who-was-iran-us-uk-relations-qasem https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/quasim-soleimani...

Lordarminius 7y ago

When the retaliation comes, more Americans are going to need 'dem' electric cars. In any case, Souleimans' value was not only military. He was a formidable politician as well. His achievements far outstripped that of the US agents. One example : ... the crucial deal that brought the Iraqi government together was made not by them but by Suleimani. In the months before, according to several Iraqi and Western officials, Suleimani invited senior Shiite and Kurdish leaders to meet with him in Tehran and Qom, and extracted from them a promise to support Maliki, his preferred candidate. The deal had a complex array of enticements. Maliki and Assad disliked each other; Suleimani brought them together by forging an agreement to build a lucrative oil pipeline from Iraq to the Syrian border. In order to bring the cleric Moqtada al-Sadr in line, Suleimani agreed to place his men in the Iraqi service ministries. Most remarkable, according to the Iraqi and Western officials, were the two conditions that Suleimani imposed on the Iraqis. The first was that Jalal Talabani, a longtime friend of the Iranian regime, become President. The second was that Maliki and his coalition partners insist that all American troops leave the country. “Suleimani said: no Americans,” the former Iraqi leader told me. “A ten-year relationship, down the drain.” Iraqi officials told me that, at the time of Jeffrey’s announcement, the Americans knew that Suleimani had pushed them out of the country but were too embarrassed to admit it in public. “We were laughing at the Americans,” the former Iraqi leader told me, growing angry as he recalled the situation. “Fuck it! Fuck it!” he said. “Suleimani completely outmaneuvered them, and in public they were congratulating themselves for putting the government together.” https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-com...

dennnis 7y ago
The US produces more oil
- tzs 7y ago
  It's a world market. US as a producer sells oil both domestically and abroad. US as a consumer consumes both domestic oil and foreign oil. In 2018, it worked out to about 9.9 million barrels/day of foreign oil being imported, and 7.6 million barrels/day of US oil being exported. If something disrupts production of some major world exporter X, causing the world market price to rise or causing shortages on the world market, US domestically sees that too.
  - hackeraccount 7y ago
    So does Iran - if the price of oil goes up they pay more domestically as well. As it happens they subsidize the price of energy internally but that brings more problems then it solves.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago

One of the things about the Middle East is that politics and diplomacy are intensely personal. It is less about the office and more about the person. Suleimani spent decades cultivating all sorts of relationships throughout the region and that will be sorely missed by Iran.

goldcd 7y ago
Agreed - the obvious (and yet neglected) pertinent point is what type of relationships were these that he cultivated? Were his associates doing "his will" because they feared him (glad he's dead) or because they agreed (wish to avenge this)? Or if as multiple reports indicate he was actually the "2nd most important Iranian" - let's flip it and pretend he's the USA's "Mike Pence". Now even the most ardent Trump Supporter I suspect doesn't give a toss about the wellbeing of "Mike Pence" - maybe there'd be a week of mourning in the lobby industry if he popped his clogs, but we'd get over it. However if the Iranians had assassinated him (and posted pictures showing them doing it), I can see maybe a sizable proportion of both sides might consider a response to be appropriate. So - "They've just assassinated our VP - what response do we think is commensurate?
- taurath 7y ago
  Its quite reasonable to postulate that more americans and iraqis will die in the next year because of this action.

pmoriarty 7y ago

I'm actually kind of surprised there aren't more assassinations around the world (not just by the US government, but by all sorts of violent groups, at the nation-state level and below), since there's so much world-wide travel these days, and technology is so much more effective and advanced than it used to be. Either security agencies are really good at preventing them, or the assassins are really incompetent or maybe not interested (which seems improbable).

ttul 7y ago
I imagine the president receives a list of potential targets on a regular basis and for whatever reason, this one resonated this time. They had his location - probably a rare intelligence coup - and Trump was advised that it was now or never if he wanted to make a huge statement following the rocket attacks earlier in the week. I would imagine that the intelligence agencies frequently know where targets are, but only rarely carry out a strike.
- markdown 7y ago
  > Trump was advised that it was now or never if he wanted to make a huge statement He's tweeted about why he wanted to do it: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/382923478157910016 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/38292347815791001... https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/255784560904773633 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/25578456090477363... https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/141604554855825408 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/14160455485582540...
- taurath 7y ago
  His location is not the issue. He traveled nearly openly because to kill him would be a demand for open war.
hnnnnnnngggggg 7y ago
It is possible that something like the War of Assassins (Dune Universe, sorry) happens. Iran knows that it cannot openly strike civilian targets less it draws the ire of China and Russia nor could it match the US military in open combat, so that leaves Iran targeted assassinations in response, which their asymmetric units are perfectly fit to do. I'd be concerned if I were a high-level civilian admin or military officer in the US government. The US is not going to glass Teran in response to a high-level US official being killed either as again it would draw the ire of the World community. Expect Assinantions.