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1) The US will not get any sort of major infrastructure renewal. 2) There will be major pushback against drones across western nations. They will be seen as in
by riversflow 7y ago
1) The US will not get any sort of major infrastructure renewal.
2) There will be major pushback against drones across western nations. They will be seen as infringing on people’s rights/a safety issue.
3)China will continue to rule with an iron fist, but towards the end of the decade demographic problems will start to show their colors. Trillions will be dumped into chest puffing around the South China Sea.
3) AR will become fairly normal in the workplace, but it will still be weird, but not unheard of, to use in public
4)Major strides are made on reversing/slowing the aging process. The average life expectancy will go up 5-10 years in advanced economies.
5) this will be paired with an epidemic disease coming out of China or China controlled Africa, and will spur increased world scrutiny of Chinese economic practices.
6)UBI is rolled out in some European economies.
7)Possibly a large swing to the left in American politics, spurred by Social Security and Medicare coming to a financial impasse. UBI in the US not out of the question.
8)California finally chases most of Silicon Valley out of the state. Major tech hubs will be in Texas, Colorado and Toronto. California also on verge of/declares bankruptcy. The transition won’t be complete by 2030, but the writing will be on the wall.
9)lack of software developers persists driven by constant churn, there will be a major shortage of programmers who are willing to take on maintenance of old systems.
10) average level of techsaviness goes down significantly as gen Z becomes adults who have never had to use a challenging computer.
11)Regulation of social media will be a hot-button issue globally, but the US will struggle with it because of how it relates to Free Speech. Without leadership on this problem Chinese style authoritarianism will proliferate.
- dmode 7y agoI am curious about #8, because this was literally the prediction over the last decade. Remember - entering this decade California had 12% unemployment and a $27bn deficit and all businesses were supposedly "fleeing" California. The exact opposite of that prediction happened, and California actually widened the tech gap with other states. My prediction will be that this gap will actually increase in the next decade. Texas will continue to be one of the worst states in tech.
- riversflow 7y agoWe shall see. The ability to do hardware prototyping in the Bay Area went from expensive but feasible, to nearly impossible thanks to increasingly stringent environmental and occupational safety regulations, unique to California(which has its own “CalOSHA” and environmental health agencies), and as I understand it the manufacturing capabilities in region was a major boon at one point for tech. Additionally, the inequality in the Oakland-SF-Berkeley area is definitely driving people away. Something like 50% of the state is considering moving in some polls. Also, if you aren’t aware, California has a fundamentally underfunded Public Employees Retirement Funds, which were designed during the dot.com bubble with those growth rates in mind as being sustainable forever(seriously). Even after the decade long bull run it’s still only 70% funded, the fund even admits that this could be a rough decade. https://calpensions.com/2019/08/26/calpers-gets-candid-about-critical-decade-ahead/ https://calpensions.com/2019/08/26/calpers-gets-candid-about...