5 ms·

I really feel that VR headset could replace game consoles. Quest is pretty much a game console in a headset. When technology improves, it could become good enou

I really feel that VR headset could replace game consoles. Quest is pretty much a game console in a headset. When technology improves, it could become good enough for most gamers just like aging technology of Xbox and PlayStation is. This alone could push adoption by a factor of 10 or even more.

criddell 7y ago
They should follow the console model. I think Facebook missed a big opportunity with the Quest. It should be $100 and have an app store where Facebook makes 30% on the software.
- Impossible 7y ago
  Uh, what opportunity did Facebook miss? This is exactly what they're doing with the Quest. Yes, Quest isn't $100, but at $400 for full entry it is by far the cheapest 6DOF VR solution on the market. It is already sold at a loss, and its hard for 30% of app store sales to justify a $500-$900 (guessing) loss per unit at $100. Even with the most privacy destroying datamining and advertising I don't think Facebook could justify taking that big of a loss on the hardware. As components get cheaper Quest will price drop. This is one of the problems with VR market adoption. People essentially want cutting edge hardware, for nearly free, games for free, and don't want to be monetized in any other way, to the point that people complain about how evil Facebook is when they suggest you link a Facebook account to your Quest.
Impossible 7y ago
I agree, although replace isn't quite the right word (assuming by replace you mean traditional console gaming goes away in favor of VR). I think it will establish itself as a console sized gaming market (10-20 million active HMDs) in the next 5 years. A 2x sized market is an absolute given, that would put VR at more than 10 million 6DOF HMDs total. I think 10x is likely (50 million HMDs), which also put VR. This will be number for the entire VR gaming market, not a single device. Valve will own PC VR, probably with a wireless future Index. Sony will own console VR, and Oculus\Facebook will own mobile\standalone with Quest like devices. This market is the size of a single mid-level success game console (Xbox One and Switch are ~40 million), but big hit consoles like PS4, Wii and PS2 are closer to ~100 million units for a single console, and I don't think VR will be there for a long time. Still this is a big enough market to support a couple of AAA VR games a year, including a few big games as service\free to play multiplayer\MMO games and a relatively "healthy" indie game market (regular hits, but most developers still complaining about discoverability and lack of funding). For enterprise use cases I think VR will continue to grow in training, but teleconferencing and remote work (true killer business apps) won't land for a while. Whoever wins this market (my guess is either Facebook or Microsoft) will make a ton of money though. By land I mean, there are and will continue to be many applications that attempt to support remote work, but there won't be a useful one that gains enterprise adoption and is better than traditional video conferencing for a while.

criddell 7y ago

They should follow the console model. I think Facebook missed a big opportunity with the Quest. It should be $100 and have an app store where Facebook makes 30% on the software.

Impossible 7y ago
Uh, what opportunity did Facebook miss? This is exactly what they're doing with the Quest. Yes, Quest isn't $100, but at $400 for full entry it is by far the cheapest 6DOF VR solution on the market. It is already sold at a loss, and its hard for 30% of app store sales to justify a $500-$900 (guessing) loss per unit at $100. Even with the most privacy destroying datamining and advertising I don't think Facebook could justify taking that big of a loss on the hardware. As components get cheaper Quest will price drop. This is one of the problems with VR market adoption. People essentially want cutting edge hardware, for nearly free, games for free, and don't want to be monetized in any other way, to the point that people complain about how evil Facebook is when they suggest you link a Facebook account to your Quest.

Impossible 7y ago

I agree, although replace isn't quite the right word (assuming by replace you mean traditional console gaming goes away in favor of VR). I think it will establish itself as a console sized gaming market (10-20 million active HMDs) in the next 5 years. A 2x sized market is an absolute given, that would put VR at more than 10 million 6DOF HMDs total. I think 10x is likely (50 million HMDs), which also put VR. This will be number for the entire VR gaming market, not a single device. Valve will own PC VR, probably with a wireless future Index. Sony will own console VR, and Oculus\Facebook will own mobile\standalone with Quest like devices. This market is the size of a single mid-level success game console (Xbox One and Switch are ~40 million), but big hit consoles like PS4, Wii and PS2 are closer to ~100 million units for a single console, and I don't think VR will be there for a long time. Still this is a big enough market to support a couple of AAA VR games a year, including a few big games as service\free to play multiplayer\MMO games and a relatively "healthy" indie game market (regular hits, but most developers still complaining about discoverability and lack of funding). For enterprise use cases I think VR will continue to grow in training, but teleconferencing and remote work (true killer business apps) won't land for a while. Whoever wins this market (my guess is either Facebook or Microsoft) will make a ton of money though. By land I mean, there are and will continue to be many applications that attempt to support remote work, but there won't be a useful one that gains enterprise adoption and is better than traditional video conferencing for a while.