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This is impressive, but the most impressive part is that Tesla will likely grow another 50% in the coming year given their guidance. Tesla China can now produc

by ricw 7y ago

This is impressive, but the most impressive part is that Tesla will likely grow another 50% in the coming year given their guidance. Tesla China can now produce 3k cars a week, let’s extrapolate that to the year at a really conservative 2k, which results in about 100k extra cars annually. The same can be expected from the model Y ramp which according to Tesla rumors is already well under way, given that it’s effectively the same process as the model 3. All while not being legally allowed to sell in half of the USA due to outdated car dealership rules, I’d expect this trend to continue given their product roadmap. If they can keep this trend going for 10 years, they’ll be the largest car manufacture in the world. Hah kidding, that would just be impossible to keep up for so long.

ortusdux 7y ago
On a separate note, I've been wondering how Tesla's relationship with China will affect Starlink. When I first learned about Musk's satellite internet plans, I was optimistic that it could bring unfettered internet access to the billion+ people subject to aggressive internet censorship. Now I doubt Musk will go against a country that is providing over a 1/5th of his car sales.
- iddqd 7y ago
  Starlink is done by SpaceX, not Tesla.
  - xxpor 7y ago
    Why do you think China will make that distinction?
  - jonplackett 7y ago
    I doubt they'll see any difference between them though.
  - piokoch 7y ago
    Chinese government might not care too much about this kind of corporate details. Elon & Tesla will simply be kicked off China if he tries to mess with communists censorship rules.
- SEJeff 7y ago
  Radio spectrum is regulated by virtually every country on their own land. As a result, companies wanting to beam data into / out of each country have to work with local regulators for legal access. This means working with the Chinese government which also likely means going in / out the great firewall of china. It has nothing to do with Musk going against China, but if you want to play in a country, you play by their rules and respect their laws. Personally, I just imagine how much Starlink is going to help much of rural Africa and some of the most (internet-wise) under-served parts of the world. Starlink doesn't mean that magically Russia, Cuba, and North Korea are all going to have unfettered internet access.
- mhandley 7y ago
  Starlink requires bi-directional user terminals - they're not just a passive dish, but also a transmitter. That means whereever in the world you deploy them, unless you're in international waters, you're going to need a spectrum license. SpaceX won't be going against any countries - they'd just end up with their users going to jail. If SpaceX wants to deploy in China, it will be on China's terms. I think that Tesla's chinese factory doesn't greatly change that. SpaceX will get permission to sell to users in China only if the Chinese leadership thinks it's in China's and their interests.
  - gpm 7y ago
    I'd also argue that there is basically 0 chance that China thinks putting telecommunications infrastructure under a US companies control is in their interest.
    - mhandley 7y ago
      Well, it might happen as part of a quid pro quo deal. China also has plans in this space: http://www.ecns.cn/news/sci-tech/2018-09-19/detail-ifyyehna1446014.shtml http://www.ecns.cn/news/sci-tech/2018-09-19/detail-ifyyehna1... If China wants access to the US market for Hongyan, SpaceX and the FCC might be able to negotiate some form of access for Starlink to the Chinese market. Likely this would involve access from China relayed through Chinese ground gateways.
      - gpm 7y ago
        Sure, but I think that China would rather keep the US out of their infrastructure than get into the US infrastructure, and the reverse. Neither side seems likely to make such a deal. China especially heavily leverages their infrastructure for geopolitical purposes. Censoring and monitoring inside the country, launching attacks outside of the country, etc. I really doubt they want the US to get any leverage in the form of controlling some of the nodes, even if they are supposed to by agreement only route traffic from inside China to inside China.
    - Symmetry 7y ago
erikpukinskis 7y ago
If self driving cabs happen within those 10 years, I don’t think anything can stop them. If that doesn’t come to pass, Tesla has a tougher road. They will face competition. But from where? Companies still selling a large % of ICE vehicles can’t market their EVs effectively. So realistically Tesla won’t start getting competition until the petroleum tipping point in the auto industry. I don’t know when that will be. Not next year! And that’s the starting gun for Tesla’s competitors. Tesla has already been building factories, flat out, for a decade. So, I would say “impossible” is too strong a word.
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  >Companies still selling a large % of ICE vehicles can’t market their EVs effectively. This is nonsense. Every major manufacturer is marketing an EV. The problem is that nobody, including Tesla, has figured out how to make these cars profitably.
  - breakyerself 7y ago
    My understanding was that they aren't profitable because they are sinking every penny into growth. Not because they're selling cars at a loss.
    - sunstone 7y ago
      Yup, it's the Amazon model.
      - aguyfromnb 7y ago
        This comment demonstrates a lack of understanding of both company's business models. Here's the two company's R&D spend: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/r_and_d_expense Amazon: billions and billions. 9 Billion this quarter alone, which is more than Tesla has spent on R&D in their entire existence. Tesla? 300 million this quarter and trending down. Amazon was generating REAMS of cash flow, for 10 years before they earned a profit. Billions and billions of dollars for investment. Tesla is regularly cash flow negative, almost half a billion per quarter on average: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow So can you explain how these "models" are at all similar? Do you think all unprofitable companies are like Amazon?

by ricw 7y ago

ortusdux 7y ago

On a separate note, I've been wondering how Tesla's relationship with China will affect Starlink. When I first learned about Musk's satellite internet plans, I was optimistic that it could bring unfettered internet access to the billion+ people subject to aggressive internet censorship. Now I doubt Musk will go against a country that is providing over a 1/5th of his car sales.

iddqd 7y ago
Starlink is done by SpaceX, not Tesla.
- xxpor 7y ago
  Why do you think China will make that distinction?
- jonplackett 7y ago
  I doubt they'll see any difference between them though.
- piokoch 7y ago
  Chinese government might not care too much about this kind of corporate details. Elon & Tesla will simply be kicked off China if he tries to mess with communists censorship rules.
SEJeff 7y ago
Radio spectrum is regulated by virtually every country on their own land. As a result, companies wanting to beam data into / out of each country have to work with local regulators for legal access. This means working with the Chinese government which also likely means going in / out the great firewall of china. It has nothing to do with Musk going against China, but if you want to play in a country, you play by their rules and respect their laws. Personally, I just imagine how much Starlink is going to help much of rural Africa and some of the most (internet-wise) under-served parts of the world. Starlink doesn't mean that magically Russia, Cuba, and North Korea are all going to have unfettered internet access.
mhandley 7y ago
Starlink requires bi-directional user terminals - they're not just a passive dish, but also a transmitter. That means whereever in the world you deploy them, unless you're in international waters, you're going to need a spectrum license. SpaceX won't be going against any countries - they'd just end up with their users going to jail. If SpaceX wants to deploy in China, it will be on China's terms. I think that Tesla's chinese factory doesn't greatly change that. SpaceX will get permission to sell to users in China only if the Chinese leadership thinks it's in China's and their interests.
- gpm 7y ago
  I'd also argue that there is basically 0 chance that China thinks putting telecommunications infrastructure under a US companies control is in their interest.
  - mhandley 7y ago
    Well, it might happen as part of a quid pro quo deal. China also has plans in this space: http://www.ecns.cn/news/sci-tech/2018-09-19/detail-ifyyehna1446014.shtml http://www.ecns.cn/news/sci-tech/2018-09-19/detail-ifyyehna1... If China wants access to the US market for Hongyan, SpaceX and the FCC might be able to negotiate some form of access for Starlink to the Chinese market. Likely this would involve access from China relayed through Chinese ground gateways.
    - gpm 7y ago
      Sure, but I think that China would rather keep the US out of their infrastructure than get into the US infrastructure, and the reverse. Neither side seems likely to make such a deal. China especially heavily leverages their infrastructure for geopolitical purposes. Censoring and monitoring inside the country, launching attacks outside of the country, etc. I really doubt they want the US to get any leverage in the form of controlling some of the nodes, even if they are supposed to by agreement only route traffic from inside China to inside China.
  - Symmetry 7y ago

erikpukinskis 7y ago

If self driving cabs happen within those 10 years, I don’t think anything can stop them. If that doesn’t come to pass, Tesla has a tougher road. They will face competition. But from where? Companies still selling a large % of ICE vehicles can’t market their EVs effectively. So realistically Tesla won’t start getting competition until the petroleum tipping point in the auto industry. I don’t know when that will be. Not next year! And that’s the starting gun for Tesla’s competitors. Tesla has already been building factories, flat out, for a decade. So, I would say “impossible” is too strong a word.

aguyfromnb 7y ago
>Companies still selling a large % of ICE vehicles can’t market their EVs effectively. This is nonsense. Every major manufacturer is marketing an EV. The problem is that nobody, including Tesla, has figured out how to make these cars profitably.
- breakyerself 7y ago
  My understanding was that they aren't profitable because they are sinking every penny into growth. Not because they're selling cars at a loss.
  - sunstone 7y ago
    Yup, it's the Amazon model.
    - aguyfromnb 7y ago
      This comment demonstrates a lack of understanding of both company's business models. Here's the two company's R&D spend: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/r_and_d_expense https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/r_and_d_expense Amazon: billions and billions. 9 Billion this quarter alone, which is more than Tesla has spent on R&D in their entire existence. Tesla? 300 million this quarter and trending down. Amazon was generating REAMS of cash flow, for 10 years before they earned a profit. Billions and billions of dollars for investment. Tesla is regularly cash flow negative, almost half a billion per quarter on average: https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow https://ycharts.com/companies/TSLA/free_cash_flow So can you explain how these "models" are at all similar? Do you think all unprofitable companies are like Amazon?